#黄金跌至4144美元
$XAU A while back, not many KOLs were saying this: if gold went from 4500 to 6000, are these people still around?
I think the reason it was hammered down is very simple. Mainly, the US dollar has been stronger, and US Treasury yields have been pushing higher (the 10-year is around 5.2%). The market has priced in about a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates again in October. Since gold doesn’t yield interest, when interest rates and the dollar turn “hard,” the cost of holding immediately becomes more expensive. Oil prices also strengthened because US-Iran talks stalled and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced. Meanwhile, inflation worries made the market more confident that rates would stay high for longer. In the short term, gold was weighed down by the interest-rate logic more than by the safe-haven logic.
Let me share my take. The number 4100 looks scary because everyone is still stuck in the memory of gold only being able to rise “up to the sky.” Put it in this year’s own timeline: it surged above 5000 around mid-year, and now it’s back to 4100—this is a pullback after a big rally, not a breakdown. About a year ago it was roughly 3700–3800, and over the medium to long term it’s still rising.
Don’t go against your emotions in the short term. As long as yields and rate-hike expectations don’t cool off, gold can still swing and test even lower again.
For the medium to long term, if central bank gold-buying, US fiscal debt, and real yields all ease back downward, there will still be buyers for gold.
In one sentence: this is interest-rate “slapping gold in the face,” not that gold is useless. 4100 is a temporary bargain. Size your position according to the volatility you can actually hold through—don’t treat a sharp, short-term drop as the trend having already reversed.
$XAUT
$XAU A while back, not many KOLs were saying this: if gold went from 4500 to 6000, are these people still around?
I think the reason it was hammered down is very simple. Mainly, the US dollar has been stronger, and US Treasury yields have been pushing higher (the 10-year is around 5.2%). The market has priced in about a 70% chance that the Fed will raise rates again in October. Since gold doesn’t yield interest, when interest rates and the dollar turn “hard,” the cost of holding immediately becomes more expensive. Oil prices also strengthened because US-Iran talks stalled and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced. Meanwhile, inflation worries made the market more confident that rates would stay high for longer. In the short term, gold was weighed down by the interest-rate logic more than by the safe-haven logic.
Let me share my take. The number 4100 looks scary because everyone is still stuck in the memory of gold only being able to rise “up to the sky.” Put it in this year’s own timeline: it surged above 5000 around mid-year, and now it’s back to 4100—this is a pullback after a big rally, not a breakdown. About a year ago it was roughly 3700–3800, and over the medium to long term it’s still rising.
Don’t go against your emotions in the short term. As long as yields and rate-hike expectations don’t cool off, gold can still swing and test even lower again.
For the medium to long term, if central bank gold-buying, US fiscal debt, and real yields all ease back downward, there will still be buyers for gold.
In one sentence: this is interest-rate “slapping gold in the face,” not that gold is useless. 4100 is a temporary bargain. Size your position according to the volatility you can actually hold through—don’t treat a sharp, short-term drop as the trend having already reversed.
$XAUT
