September 28: Q3 is just two days away from closing.
First, here are the numbers: BTC Q3 +43.5%, rising from 58,500 to 84,000—its second-strongest Q3 ever, behind only 2017’s +80.4%; ETH Q3 +71%, breaking its own historical record, the strongest Q3 in history. Crypto analyst Luciano said: "This is BTC’s second-strongest quarter ever, and ETH’s strongest quarter ever."
Then comes the question everyone is asking: where does Q4 go?
Let’s start with history. In crypto, Q4 is typically the strongest quarter of the year—BTC’s average Q4 gain has historically been about 85%, more than twice the average for Q3. In 2020, Q4 rose 168%; in 2023, Q4 rose 56%. Even in the 2022 bear market, Q4 only fell 15%—a decline smaller than Q1, Q2, or Q3. If historical patterns hold, Q4 should be the quarter most worth being bullish on.
But this time there’s a new variable not present in the historical data: the Fed’s probability of another rate hike in October is 64%, with the FOMC meeting on October 28–29.
In previous Q4 bull markets, the backdrop wasn’t “during a rate-hike cycle”—in 2020 rates were at zero, and in 2023 the hiking cycle was close to ending. This time, rates are still 3.75%–4.00%, and they could go up once more. How much impact that has on the historical Q4 pattern is something nobody can answer precisely.
On the technical side, BTC’s next key resistance is 96,700. This is the resistance level given by the MVRV model (market value to realized value). Historically, only after breaking above it do large-scale profit-taking by holders typically begin. In other words, 96,700 is the “structural threshold” on the way to 100,000—not just a psychological round number.
Three key variables determine the direction of Q4:
Whether ETF inflows can sustain: By the end of Q3, ETF inflows since the start of the year have turned positive; if the weekly inflow trend continues, institutional support remains.
October FOMC: If rate hikes are implemented, it may weigh on the market in the short term; if they’re paused, it’s a macro tailwind.
Altseason index: from 45 to 62—still 13 points away from 75. If altseason in Q4 really kicks in, with total market value expansion, BTC can ride along too.
Q3 just closed as the second-strongest in history—meaning historically Q4 should be even stronger. But the “hike in October” hurdle is a variable that hasn’t appeared before.
So what’s your view on Q4 BTC? Do you think you’ll see 100,000, or do you expect a pullback first? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
$ETH
First, here are the numbers: BTC Q3 +43.5%, rising from 58,500 to 84,000—its second-strongest Q3 ever, behind only 2017’s +80.4%; ETH Q3 +71%, breaking its own historical record, the strongest Q3 in history. Crypto analyst Luciano said: "This is BTC’s second-strongest quarter ever, and ETH’s strongest quarter ever."
Then comes the question everyone is asking: where does Q4 go?
Let’s start with history. In crypto, Q4 is typically the strongest quarter of the year—BTC’s average Q4 gain has historically been about 85%, more than twice the average for Q3. In 2020, Q4 rose 168%; in 2023, Q4 rose 56%. Even in the 2022 bear market, Q4 only fell 15%—a decline smaller than Q1, Q2, or Q3. If historical patterns hold, Q4 should be the quarter most worth being bullish on.
But this time there’s a new variable not present in the historical data: the Fed’s probability of another rate hike in October is 64%, with the FOMC meeting on October 28–29.
In previous Q4 bull markets, the backdrop wasn’t “during a rate-hike cycle”—in 2020 rates were at zero, and in 2023 the hiking cycle was close to ending. This time, rates are still 3.75%–4.00%, and they could go up once more. How much impact that has on the historical Q4 pattern is something nobody can answer precisely.
On the technical side, BTC’s next key resistance is 96,700. This is the resistance level given by the MVRV model (market value to realized value). Historically, only after breaking above it do large-scale profit-taking by holders typically begin. In other words, 96,700 is the “structural threshold” on the way to 100,000—not just a psychological round number.
Three key variables determine the direction of Q4:
Whether ETF inflows can sustain: By the end of Q3, ETF inflows since the start of the year have turned positive; if the weekly inflow trend continues, institutional support remains.
October FOMC: If rate hikes are implemented, it may weigh on the market in the short term; if they’re paused, it’s a macro tailwind.
Altseason index: from 45 to 62—still 13 points away from 75. If altseason in Q4 really kicks in, with total market value expansion, BTC can ride along too.
Q3 just closed as the second-strongest in history—meaning historically Q4 should be even stronger. But the “hike in October” hurdle is a variable that hasn’t appeared before.
So what’s your view on Q4 BTC? Do you think you’ll see 100,000, or do you expect a pullback first? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
$ETH
