$SPY opened Monday at $767.85, down 0.45%. The weekend flipped the options surface — Friday's +$903M positive gamma turned into -$712M negative. Same reset pattern we saw after Labor Day. Dealers went from absorbing moves to amplifying them.
But the premium didn't follow. 74% of today's premium is still in calls, $544M net. Skew inverted — calls priced above puts. Institutions positioned for higher. The dealer book is not.
Positive gamma now starts at $772, up from $768 Friday. Price is $4 below it. $775 (+$100M) and $780 (+$111M) are the magnets above, both thinner than Friday.
Below price, the cliff is back. $767 (-$89M) sits at price. $765 (-$137M), $761 (-$142M), and $760 (-$121M) stack below. About $400M of negative gamma between $760 and $765.
The $774 lower-highs ceiling is $6.15 away. Friday closed $2.65 under it. The test hasn't happened yet. It needs the surface to flip back positive first.
Cold PPI signal, day 12 of 20: $SPY +1.32% from the September 10 close versus the +1.22% historical average.
$772 is where support turns positive. $767.85 is price. $760-$765 is the cliff. $774 is the ceiling. $779.30 is the record.
The surface reset. The money held. The ceiling waits.
But the premium didn't follow. 74% of today's premium is still in calls, $544M net. Skew inverted — calls priced above puts. Institutions positioned for higher. The dealer book is not.
Positive gamma now starts at $772, up from $768 Friday. Price is $4 below it. $775 (+$100M) and $780 (+$111M) are the magnets above, both thinner than Friday.
Below price, the cliff is back. $767 (-$89M) sits at price. $765 (-$137M), $761 (-$142M), and $760 (-$121M) stack below. About $400M of negative gamma between $760 and $765.
The $774 lower-highs ceiling is $6.15 away. Friday closed $2.65 under it. The test hasn't happened yet. It needs the surface to flip back positive first.
Cold PPI signal, day 12 of 20: $SPY +1.32% from the September 10 close versus the +1.22% historical average.
$772 is where support turns positive. $767.85 is price. $760-$765 is the cliff. $774 is the ceiling. $779.30 is the record.
The surface reset. The money held. The ceiling waits.
