U.S.-China Tariffs Cut by About $30 Billion Each: Moving From “Statements” to “Implementation”
Substantive progress has been made in economic and trade talks between the U.S. and China. The two sides are no longer confined to a verbal consensus of “willingness to reduce tariffs.” They have reached agreement on reciprocal tariff-reduction lists for about $30 billion worth of each side’s imported goods: more than 90% of the relevant items’ tariffs will be rolled back to the MFN rate level. After their respective domestic legal procedures are completed, the reductions will be implemented simultaneously.
The “gold content” of the lists is high. On the U.S. side, the 77 items related to China’s exports include toys, household appliances, baby products, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and holiday gifts—mostly people-focused consumer categories frequently purchased by consumers in the U.S. mainland. On the China side, the 1,619 items related to imports from the U.S. include agricultural products, personal care items, medical devices, and coal, directly targeting real needs on the domestic consumption, healthcare, and industrial fronts. Neither side has filled the lists with obscure or peripheral items. This indicates that the concessions are targeted and come with “give-and-take.”
Its significance goes beyond sentiment. In the short term, the uncertainty surrounding trade frictions is narrowing. Global markets’ risk-avoidance expectations of “tariffs driving inflation and supply chains breaking again” may cool, and preferences for risk assets could recover. In the medium term, tariff reductions on consumer goods and intermediate inputs will directly ease U.S. household spending and reduce import costs for Chinese companies—both positive factors for inflation control on both sides and for stabilizing supply chains.
Of course, this is still “cooling off,” not “ceasefire.” Deeper issues such as remaining tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and industrial subsidies have not yet reached the bottom. But at the very least, both sides are willing to put real goods backed by real dollars on the table and pull tariff rates back. That in itself is a long-awaited rational signal in the narrative of a trade war—confrontation has a cost, and stepping back is more worthwhile than hardening one’s stance.
Don’t just watch Nvidia—AI’s “landlords” are quietly collecting rent
Everyone’s watching the AI market, their eyes glued to Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI: the moment Jensen Huang shows up in a leather jacket, the U.S. stocks act like they’ve been injected with adrenaline; when Sam Altman says, “Next year will be even more intense,” analysts change their earnings forecasts overnight. But if you really think the future of AI is just “a few big players in California closing the door to make chips, training models, and conveniently ruling the world,” then it’s a bit like thinking you only need to buy a pot to open a hotpot restaurant—yes, the pot matters, but without electricity, without gas, without a shop, without drainage pipes, what you cook isn’t hotpot; it’s a fire-drill.
BTC Reclaims $80,000: Bad News Didn’t Hit, But I Don’t Recommend You Chase It Now
This week, the macro environment and regulation are actually not very friendly: • The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bp, bringing interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%; • In the U.S., the (CLARITY Act) advanced in the Senate but was blocked; • In the first half of the week, BTC once dipped back toward around 77,000. But on September 18, BTC not only reclaimed 80,000, it also briefly surged to between $81.2k and $81.4k. ETH rose in tandem by about 7%–8%, and SOL, XRP, and others also followed. At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF ended its streak of outflows and recorded roughly $160 million in net inflows. My judgment is straightforward: This isn’t a “full return of the bull market,” but a rebound driven by the combined effects of “bad news being digested + short-covering + ETF capital returning.”