📊 A petroleum bill that nobody is paying yet

The debate about the resurgence of Venezuelan oil returned to the center of the conversation with an uncomfortable figure: giving more strength to the industry would require injecting more than US$100 billion in the medium term, and up to US$220 billion if the goal is to restore the historical infrastructure in a decade or more. The figures come from scenarios by Rystad Energy and from operational records of Baker Hughes and OPEC cited by OilPrice.com, and they depict a country producing again above 1.1 million barrels per day, but doing so with a worn-out structure.

For anyone operating with crypto in Venezuela, the discussion isn’t theoretical: the real ability to generate foreign currency determines the pressure on the parallel dollar, the flow of remittances, and ultimately the price at which a USDT is traded on P2P platforms.

📈 The drilling trap

The report points to a gap that’s difficult to disguise. Today, the country registers only two active drilling rigs. To sustain production close to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2028, about 50 rigs would be needed, and for the end of the decade the figure would be around 80 units operating.

🔎 Targets that sound good on paper

The roadmap projects 1.8 million barrels per day by 2030 and up to 2.58 million by 2035 in the most optimistic scenario. The distance between those numbers and the two rigs currently in operation sums up the problem: without fresh capital, the curve flattens quickly.

💰 Corporate announcements and the capex that doesn’t materialize

The document contrasts promises running into the billions with the spending actually executed. North American Blue Energy Partners secured century-long concessions on 17 fields with proved reserves estimated at 65 billion barrels and talked about intentions of US$100 billion, though analysts clarify that this is a theoretical development budget, not cash available.

Chevron remains the strongest private player, with an investment plan of more than US$7 billion over five years and a management target of between 375,000 and 600,000 barrels per day. Continental Resources also looks to be in the mix, with the Ayacucho 2 block in the Faja (~30 billion barrels in situ), the expansion by Eni and Repsol in Junín-5, and Petroquiriquire/Horcón, along with the operational return of SLB and Halliburton.

🛡️ Refineries, freights, and discounts: the silent leak

Decades without reinvestment have left the Paraguaná Refining Center operating far below its nominal capacity of 955,000 barrels per day, forcing it to import diluents and limiting internal processing. On the maritime front, moving a 700,000-barrel Aframax from José to the Gulf of Mexico went from costing US$1.35 million to about US$3.5 million. With terminals running at capacity, traders like Vitol and Trafigura apply discounts of between US$18 and US$20 per barrel to Merey 16 versus Brent or WTI. It’s money taken out of the coffers for every shipment.

⚠️ The debt wall and the banking lock

With external liabilities estimated between US$150 billion and US$229 billion —adding Venezuela’s sovereign obligations and PDVSA creditors— access to large international credit lines remains blocked. Without that financing, the Faja’s heavy projects are tied to resolving transportation bottlenecks and long-term capital constraints.

According to analysts, the profitable short-term niche lies in the mature fields of Lake Maracaibo: lighter crude, infrastructure already in place, and the possibility of adding up to 200,000 barrels per day within 18 to 24 months with lower upfront investment.

📖 Read the full article: https://pitbullchain.com/noticias/petroleo-venezolano-us-100-000-millones-que-el-p2p-no-puede-ignorar-425544

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