Whether tonight can hold near 83,000 depends on how the US stock market trades after the open!
After $BTC fell back from 87,400, the 4-hour chart has already broken below the short-term moving average. The MACD bearish momentum is still being released, and the short-term structure is clearly weakening.
However, RSI 6 has already dropped to around 23, and the KDJ has entered the oversold zone. If you keep chasing shorts now, the risk-reward ratio isn’t good.
Tonight, the main things to watch are the Nasdaq, US Treasury yields, and oil prices.
If the Nasdaq continues to fall and US Treasury yields stay elevated, BTC will likely test 82,000. After a high-volume breakdown, support would be in the 80,000 to 80,500 range.
If the US stocks open lower but then rally, Treasury yields may fall back. BTC could then see a technical dead-cat bounce. First watch 84,000. Only if it can reclaim 84,500 will the short-term downtrend truly be considered to have stopped.
There’s also disagreement in the liquidity/positioning.
Last week, net inflows into BTC spot ETFs were about $2.4 billion, but daily inflows are slowing down. Institutions are still buying, but they haven’t continued aggressively chasing. This week is more likely to see modest net inflows, with one or two days of outflows mixed in.
My view is that this week will most likely be weak first and then stabilize. The main trading range is likely 80,000 to 85,500. If 80,000 holds, there is still a chance for a rebound in the second half of the week. If 80,000 breaks, then the downside target is 78,000.
Don’t rush to guess the bottom tonight. Whether 82,000 can bounce isn’t the key. After the US market opens, what matters is whether the incoming funds are willing to absorb/hold the rebound—this will determine whether this pullback is just a shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.
After $BTC fell back from 87,400, the 4-hour chart has already broken below the short-term moving average. The MACD bearish momentum is still being released, and the short-term structure is clearly weakening.
However, RSI 6 has already dropped to around 23, and the KDJ has entered the oversold zone. If you keep chasing shorts now, the risk-reward ratio isn’t good.
Tonight, the main things to watch are the Nasdaq, US Treasury yields, and oil prices.
If the Nasdaq continues to fall and US Treasury yields stay elevated, BTC will likely test 82,000. After a high-volume breakdown, support would be in the 80,000 to 80,500 range.
If the US stocks open lower but then rally, Treasury yields may fall back. BTC could then see a technical dead-cat bounce. First watch 84,000. Only if it can reclaim 84,500 will the short-term downtrend truly be considered to have stopped.
There’s also disagreement in the liquidity/positioning.
Last week, net inflows into BTC spot ETFs were about $2.4 billion, but daily inflows are slowing down. Institutions are still buying, but they haven’t continued aggressively chasing. This week is more likely to see modest net inflows, with one or two days of outflows mixed in.
My view is that this week will most likely be weak first and then stabilize. The main trading range is likely 80,000 to 85,500. If 80,000 holds, there is still a chance for a rebound in the second half of the week. If 80,000 breaks, then the downside target is 78,000.
Don’t rush to guess the bottom tonight. Whether 82,000 can bounce isn’t the key. After the US market opens, what matters is whether the incoming funds are willing to absorb/hold the rebound—this will determine whether this pullback is just a shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.