Divergence turns into consensus, or will start an accelerated sell-off
Brothers, do you still remember last week? I precisely called the top at 87,000. After the drop to 83,000, I again said that the opportunity to enter empty positions would be within the 85,000–86,000 rebound range. During the weekend, price repeatedly touched around 85,000. On Monday, the decline continued—exactly as I expected.
Let me share my views on the outlook below.
1. At the very beginning, I said that this continuation rally after the bull market is not truly the start of a new bull market. The purpose is to eliminate the short positions ahead of the rate-hike period. After the initial rally in a bull market, there will definitely be a second, strong pullback. And this rate hike happened to block that pullback. Because there are many shorts piled up, the market must first rally to squeeze the shorts before it can go into a deeper pullback and shakeout.
2. When it just dropped from 87,000, it wasn’t decided yet. We can still see some rebound strength. 85,000 tried repeatedly to be reclaimed, but there wasn’t enough momentum to move higher. This indicates that retail investors are relatively too many. And every time it rose above 85,000, it quickly fell back—showing that sell pressure is heavy. After the last time it moved up to 85,000 yesterday, the decline continued again. From disagreement, the market gradually turned into consensus, which means the shorts will accelerate.
3. What happens after the pullback? After the shakeout, I believe it will be more of an upside move. The shakeout is to wash out uncommitted positions—not to clear out longs, but to prevent those who aren’t sure from selling and causing trouble during the subsequent rally, which would otherwise increase sell pressure, lower the ceiling for the rally, and raise the cost of the rally.
These are my personal thoughts for reference only. A thousand people, a thousand faces—if you feel it’s not right, just slide past it. If you think it’s good, please follow and like!!!#BTC
Brothers, do you still remember last week? I precisely called the top at 87,000. After the drop to 83,000, I again said that the opportunity to enter empty positions would be within the 85,000–86,000 rebound range. During the weekend, price repeatedly touched around 85,000. On Monday, the decline continued—exactly as I expected.
Let me share my views on the outlook below.
1. At the very beginning, I said that this continuation rally after the bull market is not truly the start of a new bull market. The purpose is to eliminate the short positions ahead of the rate-hike period. After the initial rally in a bull market, there will definitely be a second, strong pullback. And this rate hike happened to block that pullback. Because there are many shorts piled up, the market must first rally to squeeze the shorts before it can go into a deeper pullback and shakeout.
2. When it just dropped from 87,000, it wasn’t decided yet. We can still see some rebound strength. 85,000 tried repeatedly to be reclaimed, but there wasn’t enough momentum to move higher. This indicates that retail investors are relatively too many. And every time it rose above 85,000, it quickly fell back—showing that sell pressure is heavy. After the last time it moved up to 85,000 yesterday, the decline continued again. From disagreement, the market gradually turned into consensus, which means the shorts will accelerate.
3. What happens after the pullback? After the shakeout, I believe it will be more of an upside move. The shakeout is to wash out uncommitted positions—not to clear out longs, but to prevent those who aren’t sure from selling and causing trouble during the subsequent rally, which would otherwise increase sell pressure, lower the ceiling for the rally, and raise the cost of the rally.
These are my personal thoughts for reference only. A thousand people, a thousand faces—if you feel it’s not right, just slide past it. If you think it’s good, please follow and like!!!#BTC
