Greed Index surges to 75: short-term holders’ average profit hits 15%. Are you still daring to go all-in?
Today’s Fear & Greed Index is 75—Extreme Greed. Not long ago it was around 30. In just a few short weeks, sentiment has flipped completely.
More noteworthy is another indicator: the MVRV of short-term holders is at 1.15, the highest since last November. That means the batch of people who entered in recent months are, on average, up 15% on their books.
What does a 15% gain mean? It means many positions are already in profit, and people start thinking about locking it in. Even a slight shake in price can trigger some selling. This week, BTC fell from 87,000 to 0.7—part of that is profit-taking like this.
The cost basis line for short-term holders is around 73,100. This line is crucial. In a bull market, every time a pullback touches this area, funds usually come in. Only if it breaks below clearly does it mean short-term capital has truly exited.
There’s another change: BTC’s market dominance has dropped to 53.8%. This usually suggests money is starting to flow out from BTC (the “big pie”) into other coins, so alt-coin rotation may become more active. But it also means volatility may be higher.
My own approach, shared for reference: when Greed is above 75, I don’t chase. I only reduce positions, not add. When the market pulls back to the cost-basis line, I buy in batches. For alt-coins, I only hold those with solid fundamentals—I don’t touch pure emotion-driven coins.
In plain terms: you should use sentiment in reverse. When everyone is shouting “go up,” stay calm. When everyone is panicking and cutting losses, be a bit bolder. Everyone knows this line—but few people can actually do it.
Today’s Fear & Greed Index is 75—Extreme Greed. Not long ago it was around 30. In just a few short weeks, sentiment has flipped completely.
More noteworthy is another indicator: the MVRV of short-term holders is at 1.15, the highest since last November. That means the batch of people who entered in recent months are, on average, up 15% on their books.
What does a 15% gain mean? It means many positions are already in profit, and people start thinking about locking it in. Even a slight shake in price can trigger some selling. This week, BTC fell from 87,000 to 0.7—part of that is profit-taking like this.
The cost basis line for short-term holders is around 73,100. This line is crucial. In a bull market, every time a pullback touches this area, funds usually come in. Only if it breaks below clearly does it mean short-term capital has truly exited.
There’s another change: BTC’s market dominance has dropped to 53.8%. This usually suggests money is starting to flow out from BTC (the “big pie”) into other coins, so alt-coin rotation may become more active. But it also means volatility may be higher.
My own approach, shared for reference: when Greed is above 75, I don’t chase. I only reduce positions, not add. When the market pulls back to the cost-basis line, I buy in batches. For alt-coins, I only hold those with solid fundamentals—I don’t touch pure emotion-driven coins.
In plain terms: you should use sentiment in reverse. When everyone is shouting “go up,” stay calm. When everyone is panicking and cutting losses, be a bit bolder. Everyone knows this line—but few people can actually do it.