Scenarios for the next 12 hours #solana
Base scenario (50–55%): consolidation in the 118.3–120.2 range. Oversold conditions will limit the decline, but sellers will remain active on rebounds.
Recovery (25–30%): consolidating the hourly candle above 120.2–120.5 will allow checking 121.0–121.8. Only a return above 122.0 will noticeably improve the short-term outlook.
Continuation of the correction (20%): a break of the 118.28 minimum will open the way to the lower 4H Bollinger—approximately 117.2–117.5. The next support zone is located around 116.0–116.5.
What is actually happening with Alpenglow
Officially, Alpenglow has already been launched on devnet: the transition from TowerBFT happened on slot 504 148 999.
But Solana Foundation materials explicitly state:
Agave 4.2 contains the Alpenglow code, but does not activate it on mainnet;
full activation is expected in Agave 4.3;
the target timeline for Agave 4.3 is October 2026, and this is a plan, not a date that is unconditionally guaranteed.
At the moment, Agave 4.3.0 is in release candidate stage: version RC.1 is recommended only for gradual adoption by validators, including up to 25%.
So, September 28 could be a day for testing, client deployment, or a preparation phase, but there is no confirmation of a mainnet consensus replacement on that day.
Main takeaway: Alpenglow does not provide a confirmed mainnet catalyst today, and technically SOL is undergoing a downward correction. Due to oversold conditions, a rebound is possible, but as long as the price hasn’t returned above 120.5–122.0, it will remain a rebound rather than a new upward wave.
This is a subjective interpretation of the charts and not investment advice to buy or sell.
$SOL