#BTC Market analysis 9/28
The first-part plan continues and has been completed ✅
The 82,800 protection level was not triggered. BTC’s highest price hit 85,146, which is right within the 84,800–85,200 take-profit zone; the new-position conditions for 81,800–82,500 were not met.
Now the price is back around 84,300. The larger trend is still bullish, but the short-term needs one more push.
1) Capital is still waiting for direction
The daily chart holds above the EMA7 around 84,000, but on the 4-hour chart, EMA7, 14, and 21 are all clustered at 84,400–84,500. The Bollinger upper band is around 84,850, so 84,800–85,200 remains the key resistance area that must be broken.
In the past two days, OI has fallen by about 0.63%. Price is mostly moving sideways, and the funding rate is only about 0.0019%, indicating neither side is adding leverage at scale. The market is waiting for a new catalyst.
2) How to trade today
The long positions from 83,000–83,500 from the first part have already been trimmed within the take-profit zone. The remaining position’s protection level has been moved up to 83,700. If 85,200 is broken, then we’ll look toward 86,000 and 87,200.
Don’t chase a new entry in the middle of 84,300–84,800. Wait for a pullback to 83,800–84,100. After the 1-hour chart closes back above 84,200, then consider going long again. Stop loss: 82,900. Targets: 85,200, 86,500, 87,200.
Over the past five trading days, ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of about $2.386 billion, and spot buying remains in place. However, this week still includes JOLTS and PCE data, so a breakout may likely require those releases to drive it.
Quick summary: The trend remains bullish, but don’t chase the highs. Hold above 84,000 and wait for the breakout; then enter after a pullback confirms.
⚠️ Personal analysis of the screen, not investment advice. Pay attention to position/risk management.
The first-part plan continues and has been completed ✅
The 82,800 protection level was not triggered. BTC’s highest price hit 85,146, which is right within the 84,800–85,200 take-profit zone; the new-position conditions for 81,800–82,500 were not met.
Now the price is back around 84,300. The larger trend is still bullish, but the short-term needs one more push.
1) Capital is still waiting for direction
The daily chart holds above the EMA7 around 84,000, but on the 4-hour chart, EMA7, 14, and 21 are all clustered at 84,400–84,500. The Bollinger upper band is around 84,850, so 84,800–85,200 remains the key resistance area that must be broken.
In the past two days, OI has fallen by about 0.63%. Price is mostly moving sideways, and the funding rate is only about 0.0019%, indicating neither side is adding leverage at scale. The market is waiting for a new catalyst.
2) How to trade today
The long positions from 83,000–83,500 from the first part have already been trimmed within the take-profit zone. The remaining position’s protection level has been moved up to 83,700. If 85,200 is broken, then we’ll look toward 86,000 and 87,200.
Don’t chase a new entry in the middle of 84,300–84,800. Wait for a pullback to 83,800–84,100. After the 1-hour chart closes back above 84,200, then consider going long again. Stop loss: 82,900. Targets: 85,200, 86,500, 87,200.
Over the past five trading days, ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of about $2.386 billion, and spot buying remains in place. However, this week still includes JOLTS and PCE data, so a breakout may likely require those releases to drive it.
Quick summary: The trend remains bullish, but don’t chase the highs. Hold above 84,000 and wait for the breakout; then enter after a pullback confirms.
⚠️ Personal analysis of the screen, not investment advice. Pay attention to position/risk management.
