On the square, everyone is shouting that ZEC is crazy. It’s like if you don’t rush in, you’ll be at a huge disadvantage. But I think the opposite—these numbers actually suggest that the longs are getting too crowded. In one direction, too many people can hardly be a good thing.
Today +6.7%, 7-day +14.9%. It looks fierce. But look at the volume: the average daily volume for the 7 days is only 0.8x, and the 24h trading value is 330 million USD. If big funds were really pushing it, could the volume be this sluggish? Now this level is at the 82nd percentile of the 7-day range. In plain terms, it’s just grinding in the high zone—whether it grinds up or grinds down, nobody can be sure. I’ve been burned by that kind of data, the long/short ratio on perpetual contracts. There was a coin before where the ratio was ridiculous. I believed the narrative that “if longs are strong, it must surge,” and I followed the crowd—then one little needle drop swept out all my stop-losses. So when I see this kind of all-out bullish shouting, my first reaction isn’t to go in—it’s to stay away.
$ZEC
I don’t currently have any ZEC, and I’m not planning to buy in now. I’m thinking either I wait for a pullback and see if there’s a second opportunity after volume spikes and sells break through a dip, or I just watch from the sidelines—if I miss it, I’ll miss it. People who’ve been trapped in a position know: when you’re stuck, you’re thinking about getting back to break-even every day, and you can’t sleep well. This time I won’t be greedy. I’ll just watch it perform. Not trying to persuade anyone not to play—I’m just doing exactly what I plan to do.
Today +6.7%, 7-day +14.9%. It looks fierce. But look at the volume: the average daily volume for the 7 days is only 0.8x, and the 24h trading value is 330 million USD. If big funds were really pushing it, could the volume be this sluggish? Now this level is at the 82nd percentile of the 7-day range. In plain terms, it’s just grinding in the high zone—whether it grinds up or grinds down, nobody can be sure. I’ve been burned by that kind of data, the long/short ratio on perpetual contracts. There was a coin before where the ratio was ridiculous. I believed the narrative that “if longs are strong, it must surge,” and I followed the crowd—then one little needle drop swept out all my stop-losses. So when I see this kind of all-out bullish shouting, my first reaction isn’t to go in—it’s to stay away.
$ZEC
I don’t currently have any ZEC, and I’m not planning to buy in now. I’m thinking either I wait for a pullback and see if there’s a second opportunity after volume spikes and sells break through a dip, or I just watch from the sidelines—if I miss it, I’ll miss it. People who’ve been trapped in a position know: when you’re stuck, you’re thinking about getting back to break-even every day, and you can’t sleep well. This time I won’t be greedy. I’ll just watch it perform. Not trying to persuade anyone not to play—I’m just doing exactly what I plan to do.