Two months poured in $371 billion; 87% of altcoins collectively go long—but the alarm has already been sounded
🔄 进群聊行情
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a report on September 27: excluding Bitcoin, the entire altcoin market has grown by more than $371 billion since June, an increase of about 45%. Among the spot altcoins listed on Binance, 87% have already risen above their respective 200-day moving averages, leaving only 13% still below the averages.
And right at the end of June, the picture was almost the opposite: at that time, 84% of Binance’s altcoins were below the 200-day moving average. Weakness persisted for nearly eight months— the second-longest bearish stretch since 2020. Back then, Bitcoin was hovering around $59,464, while Ethereum was only around $1,588.
The change accelerated starting September 19: the ratio climbed to roughly 70%. TOTAL3 (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) broke above $800 billion for the first time in eight months. Now, TOTAL2 has already reached about $1.17 trillion—up around 9.6% in a week and more than 12% in a month. TOTAL3 is about $81.0 billion. Ethereum’s market cap is about $334 billion, while Bitcoin is about $1.73 trillion.
With these three hard data points lined up, the “flavor” comes through:
First, the number of altcoin deposit transactions on Binance recently surged to 31,800—close to four times the average in July. Funds are moving into exchanges, not into cold wallets.
Second, altcoin contract open interest first exceeded Bitcoin since December 2024. Bitcoin accounts for only about 37% of the tracked contract positions— the leverage’s center of gravity has shifted from “big BTC” to altcoins.
Third, the “starting point” of this current rebound is low enough: in June, 84% were below the moving averages; now 87% are above. That means the market’s breadth has fully flipped within three months.
Darkfost’s own assessment is cautious: the breadth repair is a strong bullish signal, but he warns the market may be entering a more fragile phase. I agree with that direction— the word “87%” looks like a starting line, but in reality it’s more like the mid-course physical checkup. The true altcoin season is driven by spot inflows, whereas the money moving into exchanges and the leverage that stacks up—historically—appears in the later stage of a rally, not at the very beginning.
In other words, breadth is indeed recovering, but the fuel has switched from spot to leverage. This kind of structure tends to rise fast, and drawdowns tend to come fast too.
Do you think this move means altcoin season has truly arrived, or is it the final leg pushed out by leverage? Chat in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream
Every day, I’ll help you follow the hottest topics in the crypto market— not just what happens in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👀🚀
🔄 进群聊行情
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost released a report on September 27: excluding Bitcoin, the entire altcoin market has grown by more than $371 billion since June, an increase of about 45%. Among the spot altcoins listed on Binance, 87% have already risen above their respective 200-day moving averages, leaving only 13% still below the averages.
And right at the end of June, the picture was almost the opposite: at that time, 84% of Binance’s altcoins were below the 200-day moving average. Weakness persisted for nearly eight months— the second-longest bearish stretch since 2020. Back then, Bitcoin was hovering around $59,464, while Ethereum was only around $1,588.
The change accelerated starting September 19: the ratio climbed to roughly 70%. TOTAL3 (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) broke above $800 billion for the first time in eight months. Now, TOTAL2 has already reached about $1.17 trillion—up around 9.6% in a week and more than 12% in a month. TOTAL3 is about $81.0 billion. Ethereum’s market cap is about $334 billion, while Bitcoin is about $1.73 trillion.
With these three hard data points lined up, the “flavor” comes through:
First, the number of altcoin deposit transactions on Binance recently surged to 31,800—close to four times the average in July. Funds are moving into exchanges, not into cold wallets.
Second, altcoin contract open interest first exceeded Bitcoin since December 2024. Bitcoin accounts for only about 37% of the tracked contract positions— the leverage’s center of gravity has shifted from “big BTC” to altcoins.
Third, the “starting point” of this current rebound is low enough: in June, 84% were below the moving averages; now 87% are above. That means the market’s breadth has fully flipped within three months.
Darkfost’s own assessment is cautious: the breadth repair is a strong bullish signal, but he warns the market may be entering a more fragile phase. I agree with that direction— the word “87%” looks like a starting line, but in reality it’s more like the mid-course physical checkup. The true altcoin season is driven by spot inflows, whereas the money moving into exchanges and the leverage that stacks up—historically—appears in the later stage of a rally, not at the very beginning.
In other words, breadth is indeed recovering, but the fuel has switched from spot to leverage. This kind of structure tends to rise fast, and drawdowns tend to come fast too.
Do you think this move means altcoin season has truly arrived, or is it the final leg pushed out by leverage? Chat in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream
Every day, I’ll help you follow the hottest topics in the crypto market— not just what happens in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👀🚀
