The Fed kept raising rates, yet Bitcoin surged from 58,000 to 86,000—one of the most counterintuitive moves in this tightening cycle, just broken down by two big names.
💰 群里聊行情
First, let’s get the facts straight: Bitcoin rose from roughly $58,000 in summer to about $86,000 at the September peak—up around $30,000 total, nearly 48%. And all this happened while the Federal Reserve continued tightening. The two people offering explanations are not lightweight: Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Chris Jancalco, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Siegel’s explanation is: “It’s not that the buyers got stronger—it's that the sellers ran out first.” He attributes the nearly $30,000 rally to sell pressure being fully exhausted, rather than any single major catalyst. Multiple technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered bullish signals as early as the summer: Bitcoin is currently above the 50-week moving average, and market volatility has fallen by about 50% compared with earlier levels. He’s also focused on liquidity. M2 money supply re-accelerated as far back as three quarters ago, and Bitcoin has traditionally responded with a lag to changes like this. The correlation is also intriguing—Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index, positively correlated with the money supply, and has no consistent positive correlation with bond yields. Afterward, the U.S. Treasury announced a bond repurchase program, which became another kindling for this rebound.
Jancalco’s perspective is more macro. In a Sept. 24 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, he laid out a counterintuitive chain: Fed rate hikes directly raise the government’s own debt interest costs. To keep the government running, it has to issue more debt, which then intensifies the market’s concerns about the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency. In this framework, Bitcoin’s value isn’t “it’s going up fast”—its supply cap is hard-coded, and no one can freely print more. That’s what makes it increasingly resemble gold.
My translation: This rally isn’t “rate hikes are good for Bitcoin,” but rather “rate hikes have put the fiscal problem on the table.” When financing demand rises and expectations of currency devaluation emerge at the same time, money will move toward assets that policymakers can’t simply expand by issuing more. Siegel also said this pace fits Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern, and that increasing institutional participation is still continuing to suppress volatility.
But don’t extrapolate in a straight line. Volatility falling and institutions entering are slow variables; in the short term, price is still driven by liquidity and sentiment. The real test will be whether spot ETF demand can take over again after the options trading wave fades.
Do you think Bitcoin ran ahead of the rate cuts this time, or is it already pricing in “fiscal disorder”? Chat with us in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream.
Every day, I’ll take you through Bitcoin’s macro picture and the Fed’s hot topics—more than just what happened in the news; I’ll help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
💰 群里聊行情
First, let’s get the facts straight: Bitcoin rose from roughly $58,000 in summer to about $86,000 at the September peak—up around $30,000 total, nearly 48%. And all this happened while the Federal Reserve continued tightening. The two people offering explanations are not lightweight: Matthew Siegel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and Chris Jancalco, former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Siegel’s explanation is: “It’s not that the buyers got stronger—it's that the sellers ran out first.” He attributes the nearly $30,000 rally to sell pressure being fully exhausted, rather than any single major catalyst. Multiple technical indicators tracked by VanEck triggered bullish signals as early as the summer: Bitcoin is currently above the 50-week moving average, and market volatility has fallen by about 50% compared with earlier levels. He’s also focused on liquidity. M2 money supply re-accelerated as far back as three quarters ago, and Bitcoin has traditionally responded with a lag to changes like this. The correlation is also intriguing—Bitcoin is negatively correlated with the U.S. Dollar Index, positively correlated with the money supply, and has no consistent positive correlation with bond yields. Afterward, the U.S. Treasury announced a bond repurchase program, which became another kindling for this rebound.
Jancalco’s perspective is more macro. In a Sept. 24 interview with Bitcoin Magazine, he laid out a counterintuitive chain: Fed rate hikes directly raise the government’s own debt interest costs. To keep the government running, it has to issue more debt, which then intensifies the market’s concerns about the long-term purchasing power of fiat currency. In this framework, Bitcoin’s value isn’t “it’s going up fast”—its supply cap is hard-coded, and no one can freely print more. That’s what makes it increasingly resemble gold.
My translation: This rally isn’t “rate hikes are good for Bitcoin,” but rather “rate hikes have put the fiscal problem on the table.” When financing demand rises and expectations of currency devaluation emerge at the same time, money will move toward assets that policymakers can’t simply expand by issuing more. Siegel also said this pace fits Bitcoin’s four-year cycle pattern, and that increasing institutional participation is still continuing to suppress volatility.
But don’t extrapolate in a straight line. Volatility falling and institutions entering are slow variables; in the short term, price is still driven by liquidity and sentiment. The real test will be whether spot ETF demand can take over again after the options trading wave fades.
Do you think Bitcoin ran ahead of the rate cuts this time, or is it already pricing in “fiscal disorder”? Chat with us in the comments.
Click the avatar to watch the live stream.
Every day, I’ll take you through Bitcoin’s macro picture and the Fed’s hot topics—more than just what happened in the news; I’ll help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
