Greetings, dear friends!
Today I’m looking at $SUI from two angles at once: what the network itself is, what role the token plays in it, and what happens to the price after a sharp move upward.
Sui is a Layer 1 blockchain and a platform for smart contracts. The project was created by the Mysten Labs team, and the development of the ecosystem is handled by the Sui Foundation. At the core of the network is the Move language and an object-based model, which makes it possible to process independent operations in parallel. The public launch of the Sui Mainnet took place on May 3, 2023. (Sui)
$SUI is the native token of the network. It is used to pay for gas, participates in securing the network through staking, serves as a base asset of the Sui economy, and gives token holders the ability to participate in on-chain governance. The maximum supply is capped at 10 billion tokens, and the remaining portion of the supply is released according to a set schedule.
This is important to take into account when analyzing the price. SUI does not exist separately from the network itself. The token is built into its economy, and around Sui, infrastructure for trading, DeFi, payments, and working with on-chain data is gradually being formed.
In recent months, the trading segment has been developing particularly noticeably.
DeepBook is the native on-chain order book of Sui. Its infrastructure is used by various applications, and on September 24 a separate DeepBook App was launched. According to the Sui Foundation, the underlying shared order book has already supported more than $20 billion in trading volume. In the app itself at launch, Spot and Predict are available, and Predict allows working with BTC markets on time intervals from one minute up to two weeks.
In parallel, payment infrastructure is also developing. In May, Sui launched protocol-level gasless transfers for supported stablecoins. This allows users to send such assets without needing to hold SUI separately to pay the commission.
Another indicator of network development is already at the infrastructure level for developers. On September 21, GraphQL on Sui received real-time subscriptions. Now applications can receive new checkpoints, transactions, and events as they appear, rather than constantly requesting the blockchain via polling mode. This is directly applicable to wallets, trading applications, analytics, monitoring, and automated systems.
Against this backdrop, I turn to the price.
On the daily chart $SUI is around 1.115 USDC, the daily move is about +10.36%, and the maximum of the current impulse is located at 1.1605.
The price is above AVL at the 1.0906 level, and the Supertrend is around 0.8257. Therefore, the daily structure after a strong move is still looking upward. At the same time, the distance to the local high is already small, and from here, it matters less whether growth is happening and more how the price reacts near resistance.
The first level on top is obvious for me: 1.1605. This is the maximum of the current impulse.
Above are 1.1736–1.1798, then 1.1856. On the 15-minute chart, the 1.2362 level is still visible, so in case of a full breakout out of the current range, the next resistance zone is already significantly above 1.18.
But I would consider a break of 1.16 only together with volume. A simple poke through the level is not enough.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is around 1.1165, while AVL is practically there too at 1.1120. This is currently one of the most interesting zones on the chart.
The difference between price and AVL is minimal, so the 1.11 area is in fact the nearest check of how well the market is holding the result of the last impulse.
The Supertrend on 4H is located around 0.9739, meaning it’s significantly below the current price. As long as the price remains above this line, the larger movement structure does not look broken.
Below, I will look at 1.0851, then 1.0639. Even lower are 0.9906 and the 0.97 area, where the Supertrend 4H runs.
On the 15-minute chart, the situation is already less clear-cut.
The price is around 1.1177, and the SAR is at 1.1213, meaning it’s slightly above the market. At the same time, the Supertrend remains at 1.0880.
This clearly shows the difference between timeframes. On the daily and 4H charts, the structure after the growth is still intact, but on the shorter interval the price has already lost part of the impulse and is consolidating under the high.
Now I’m looking at volume.
On the 4H chart, the current volume is about 1.49 million SUI. For comparison, the average volume over 5 candles is about 6.12 million, and over 10 candles about 4.9 million SUI.
That is, the main impulse was accompanied by significantly higher activity than the current move around 1.11–1.12. Right now, the price is being held fairly high, but a new inflow of volume has not appeared yet.
This is an important detail specifically for assessing a break of 1.16. If the price approaches this level again and the volume remains just as low, simply being near the high will not be enough.
OBV currently looks better. On the daily chart, its value is around -1.081 billion, while MA7 is about -1.112 billion, and EMA7 is about -1.121 billion. The current value is higher than both averages, meaning the volume structure relative to the previous period has improved.
On the 15M chart, OBV is also above its short moving averages. This supports current buyer activity, but by itself does not confirm a resistance breakout.
On futures, the picture becomes even more interesting.
Open interest for SUIUSDC is around 7.7 million SUI, or about 8.6 million USDC in nominal terms. After falling around 20:00, it recovered.
For top traders by account, it’s about 77.5% long versus 22.5% short, which gives a ratio of roughly 3.45 to 1.
If you look not at the number of accounts but at the size of positions of these participants, the edge is even higher: about 80.3% long versus 19.7% short, or roughly 4.07 to 1.
Across all accounts, the distribution is calmer: about 62.2% long versus 37.8% short, or roughly 1.64.
That means there’s an important difference between large participants and the market as a whole. In the top traders segment, there are currently significantly more long positions.
Funding is around 0.010%. The value itself doesn’t look extreme, but combined with such a skew toward longs, it shows that futures participants are already noticeably pricing in continuation of the move.
Here I would look at three indicators at once: price, OI, and volume.
If SUI breaks 1.1605, with both volume and open interest increasing at the same time, that would be a stronger confirmation of the continuation of the move.
If the price is holding in the 1.11–1.16 area, and OI is gradually decreasing, then it’s a different picture: the futures leverage is shrinking, but the OI drop itself does not yet mean the price structure is breaking down.
If, however, the price rejects the breakout, OI remains high and longs continue to dominate, increasing the risk of a sharp move downward followed by forced closures of positions.
So right now I’m highlighting three main zones.
1.1605 is the nearest resistance and the maximum of the current impulse.
1.112–1.085 is the nearest zone where it will be visible how consistently SUI is holding the levels it has reached.
1.063–0.99 is the next area in case of a deeper correction.
Meanwhile, the project’s fundamental side continues to develop alongside trading activity. DeepBook is expanding on-chain trading infrastructure, Sui is developing gasless payments and network data tools, and the Bitcoin DeFi direction via Hashi remains a separate project under development. (Sui)
Based on the current chart, I would therefore not try to assess SUI only by today’s +10%. The main move has already happened, and now the price is very close to 1.1605 with a noticeably lower volume and a strong long dominance on futures.
For me, the next truly informative moment is right here: a break of 1.1605 with the return of volume and an increase in OI—or else an inability to pass this level followed by a check of the 1.112–1.085 area.
As long as SUI stays between these zones, I view the move as consolidation after a strong impulse, not as already-confirmed continuation of the uptrend.