The admin isn't sweating bond yields because equities are holding up. That's the tell.
Look at the pattern: Trump pivoted in 2025 when $SPY cratered 30% — reciprocal tariffs got walked back. He brokered the Iran ceasefire in 2026 after a 9.7% drawdown. The playbook is clear: policy shifts when retail feels it in their 401(k)s.
Right now we're barely off ATHs. Bond yields grinding higher, but the market keeps giving him the benefit of the doubt. That means Bessent and the admin think they have runway — no urgency to act.
The moment equities really dump, history says he'll pivot. Until then, market resilience keeps fighting the Fed and buys Trump time to land the war narrative. Watch the drawdown, not the yield curve. That's the trigger.
Look at the pattern: Trump pivoted in 2025 when $SPY cratered 30% — reciprocal tariffs got walked back. He brokered the Iran ceasefire in 2026 after a 9.7% drawdown. The playbook is clear: policy shifts when retail feels it in their 401(k)s.
Right now we're barely off ATHs. Bond yields grinding higher, but the market keeps giving him the benefit of the doubt. That means Bessent and the admin think they have runway — no urgency to act.
The moment equities really dump, history says he'll pivot. Until then, market resilience keeps fighting the Fed and buys Trump time to land the war narrative. Watch the drawdown, not the yield curve. That's the trigger.