Today BTC is trading around 84,000 to 85,000, with the quarter’s biggest options expiry.
But what I want to talk about today is a less conspicuous number.
According to SoSoValue data, the year-to-date cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs officially turned positive on September 24.
What does that mean?
In the first eight months of 2026, BTC ETFs went through continuous net outflows—institutions were reducing their holdings. Every time BTC fell, ETF net outflows accompanied it. The cumulative shortfall at one point was close to $5.8 billion. Everyone has been asking, “Are institutions about to pull out?”
Then starting August 19, after the Treasury announced that bond repurchases would be doubled, BTC began to rebound. From that day to September 24, over 36 days, ETFs accumulated $4.6 billion in inflows—erasing the entire net outflow deficit for the year and turning it positive.
These $4.6 billion were not driven by retail sentiment. They are institutional funds from spot ETFs, flowing in one by one. Specifically, on September 24 alone, inflows were $191 million, and ETH ETFs also saw $66 million that same day.
The implication behind this number is: during the period when the CLARITY Act failed, the Fed raised rates by 25 bp, and strong PMI data heated up expectations for another rate hike in December, institutions did not stop—they were casting votes with real money. That suggests, within their decision framework, this price range is worth holding.
Today is the quarter’s largest options expiry, with about $650 million in open contracts settling in the 84,000 to 87,000 range. Option expiry itself doesn’t determine direction, but after settlement, the market will be freed from the hedging pressure from options market makers, so the direction may be cleaner.
BTC’s monthly RSI is currently around 54, still quite far from the historically overbought level near the top of the range—there’s momentum, but no overheating. The Supertrend indicator has turned green again around 84,000.
Standard Chartered’s year-end target is 100,000. From 84,000, there is roughly 19% upside.
Have you noticed that ETF year-to-date inflows have turned positive? How much do you think this supports the outlook for the next phase of the market? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
But what I want to talk about today is a less conspicuous number.
According to SoSoValue data, the year-to-date cumulative net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs officially turned positive on September 24.
What does that mean?
In the first eight months of 2026, BTC ETFs went through continuous net outflows—institutions were reducing their holdings. Every time BTC fell, ETF net outflows accompanied it. The cumulative shortfall at one point was close to $5.8 billion. Everyone has been asking, “Are institutions about to pull out?”
Then starting August 19, after the Treasury announced that bond repurchases would be doubled, BTC began to rebound. From that day to September 24, over 36 days, ETFs accumulated $4.6 billion in inflows—erasing the entire net outflow deficit for the year and turning it positive.
These $4.6 billion were not driven by retail sentiment. They are institutional funds from spot ETFs, flowing in one by one. Specifically, on September 24 alone, inflows were $191 million, and ETH ETFs also saw $66 million that same day.
The implication behind this number is: during the period when the CLARITY Act failed, the Fed raised rates by 25 bp, and strong PMI data heated up expectations for another rate hike in December, institutions did not stop—they were casting votes with real money. That suggests, within their decision framework, this price range is worth holding.
Today is the quarter’s largest options expiry, with about $650 million in open contracts settling in the 84,000 to 87,000 range. Option expiry itself doesn’t determine direction, but after settlement, the market will be freed from the hedging pressure from options market makers, so the direction may be cleaner.
BTC’s monthly RSI is currently around 54, still quite far from the historically overbought level near the top of the range—there’s momentum, but no overheating. The Supertrend indicator has turned green again around 84,000.
Standard Chartered’s year-end target is 100,000. From 84,000, there is roughly 19% upside.
Have you noticed that ETF year-to-date inflows have turned positive? How much do you think this supports the outlook for the next phase of the market? Share your thoughts.
$BTC
#BTC
