When the order book fell back to around $83,000 after $BTC turns, intense liquidity battles became apparent. The derivatives market went through a round of harsh long-side deleveraging, with daily liquidation volumes exceeding $600 million, while the spot market showed an entirely different picture. US spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 6th consecutive trading day, with a daily inflow of $191 million, of which BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $163 million.
This divergence reveals a deep split in the nature of capital. The contract-market stampede was mainly driven by macro pressure as the yield on 10-year US Treasuries broke above 5.1%; higher long-end interest rates lifted the cost of capital across the market, forcing short-term leveraged funds to clear out. Meanwhile, mid-to-long-term allocation-oriented spot capital is still stepping in from lower levels—cumulative net inflows have reached $57.4 billion, and there are still real bids supporting the bottom.
The key tug-of-war now is whether off-exchange institutions can absorb supply quickly enough to withstand the selling pressure brought by tightened macro liquidity. If spot ETFs continue to attract funds and push prices back into the $84,000–$85,000 range, this adjustment is more likely to be the digestion of leverage and profit-taking. If, however, long-end yields remain elevated and cause ETF buying to turn negative and break through the $83,000 support line, investors should watch for a decline in spot absorption strength.
This divergence reveals a deep split in the nature of capital. The contract-market stampede was mainly driven by macro pressure as the yield on 10-year US Treasuries broke above 5.1%; higher long-end interest rates lifted the cost of capital across the market, forcing short-term leveraged funds to clear out. Meanwhile, mid-to-long-term allocation-oriented spot capital is still stepping in from lower levels—cumulative net inflows have reached $57.4 billion, and there are still real bids supporting the bottom.
The key tug-of-war now is whether off-exchange institutions can absorb supply quickly enough to withstand the selling pressure brought by tightened macro liquidity. If spot ETFs continue to attract funds and push prices back into the $84,000–$85,000 range, this adjustment is more likely to be the digestion of leverage and profit-taking. If, however, long-end yields remain elevated and cause ETF buying to turn negative and break through the $83,000 support line, investors should watch for a decline in spot absorption strength.