The $NBIS has a 24-hour increase of 11.236%, and the funding rate right now is at 0.00001752. Put simply, this is the high end of a positive funding-rate zone—longs are paying significant costs out of pocket to the shorts for their positions. Prices surge in tandem with the funding rate rising; in the short term, this usually means the upward momentum is being propped up by longs constantly adding positions to push through the costs, and the crowding isn’t low.
Old Dog took a look at the data: the trading volume has broken $109 million, and the price has touched 248.88. The funding rate’s “directional law” here is very clear: funding greater than zero means longs are crowded. Now the price is rising and the rate is positive—this is a typical case of longs pushing hard with funding advantages, but they’re losing ground every minute. If this level can’t quickly break out on expanding volume and digest this pool of long-side funding, it’s easy for the move to turn into a spike-and-retrace, because the people holding longs to “carry” negative funding costs won’t have much patience.
I think this leg of the rally’s self-sustaining drive is nearing a critical point. The next forced move will be from these high-leverage longs. Either price quickly lifts by another step to cover the funding costs with unrealized gains, or they’ll have to start actively cutting positions. Old Dog won’t chase longs at this moment. I’m waiting for two signals: either price breaks out above the top of the current consolidation range with volume expansion to confirm strength, or it falls below 248.88—this nearby support level/platform—to confirm the longs are exhausted.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #NBIS #NBISUSDT $NBIS
Old Dog took a look at the data: the trading volume has broken $109 million, and the price has touched 248.88. The funding rate’s “directional law” here is very clear: funding greater than zero means longs are crowded. Now the price is rising and the rate is positive—this is a typical case of longs pushing hard with funding advantages, but they’re losing ground every minute. If this level can’t quickly break out on expanding volume and digest this pool of long-side funding, it’s easy for the move to turn into a spike-and-retrace, because the people holding longs to “carry” negative funding costs won’t have much patience.
I think this leg of the rally’s self-sustaining drive is nearing a critical point. The next forced move will be from these high-leverage longs. Either price quickly lifts by another step to cover the funding costs with unrealized gains, or they’ll have to start actively cutting positions. Old Dog won’t chase longs at this moment. I’m waiting for two signals: either price breaks out above the top of the current consolidation range with volume expansion to confirm strength, or it falls below 248.88—this nearby support level/platform—to confirm the longs are exhausted.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #NBIS #NBISUSDT $NBIS