Today Deribit quarterly options expire, with nearly $16 billion notional size to be settled
Objective figures: bullish bias overall. The put/call open-interest ratio is around 0.69. Max pain is near 75,000, yet the current price is hovering around 84,200—about a $10,000 gap. The intraday high touched 84,940 and then pulled back, and the intraday low was also hit down to 82,875
What does this imply? Ahead of expiry, market makers hedging pushed the price up a notch. Once the settlement is over, this bid may disappear, and short-term volatility could reopen. Grinding this morning doesn’t mean the move is already finished
So the market logic is very clear: this afternoon into the evening, first look at the post-settlement repricing. Either it doesn’t move and the range resets, or treat 84,800–85,000 as the de-risking zone. Don’t chase higher during the settlement window
For those holding long positions: when price rebounds to 84,800–85,000, reduce a portion. Let 83,000–83,500 digest. If 82,875 gets lost, acknowledge it and don’t stubbornly hold out waiting for a rebound
The next observation point is whether volatility amplifies after settlement, and whether positions shift toward October/December. If the timing is right, even the “hair” you missed can be earned back
$BTC $ETH
Objective figures: bullish bias overall. The put/call open-interest ratio is around 0.69. Max pain is near 75,000, yet the current price is hovering around 84,200—about a $10,000 gap. The intraday high touched 84,940 and then pulled back, and the intraday low was also hit down to 82,875
What does this imply? Ahead of expiry, market makers hedging pushed the price up a notch. Once the settlement is over, this bid may disappear, and short-term volatility could reopen. Grinding this morning doesn’t mean the move is already finished
So the market logic is very clear: this afternoon into the evening, first look at the post-settlement repricing. Either it doesn’t move and the range resets, or treat 84,800–85,000 as the de-risking zone. Don’t chase higher during the settlement window
For those holding long positions: when price rebounds to 84,800–85,000, reduce a portion. Let 83,000–83,500 digest. If 82,875 gets lost, acknowledge it and don’t stubbornly hold out waiting for a rebound
The next observation point is whether volatility amplifies after settlement, and whether positions shift toward October/December. If the timing is right, even the “hair” you missed can be earned back
$BTC $ETH