$AXTI 24 hours rose 6.555% to 76.4, but the funding rate remains completely unchanged at 0. Political and military events are the main focus; the market is waiting for the other shoe to drop, and neither longs nor shorts dare to move first. The open position volume is 81,775 lots and hasn’t collapsed, which suggests that nobody is panicking and running away.

This move looks more like a passive reaction from existing capital, not a surge of new money jumping in aggressively. Judged by a single signal, the balance is fragile—any message in either direction can break the stalemate.

I go against the consensus: the market thinks that having no news is good news; I tend to think this is the calm before the storm.

Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #AXTI

Where do you think this assessment is most likely to be wrong?