THE 5.15% TRAP: WHEN THE 10-YEAR TANKS EVERYTHING
Bitcoin is hovering around 84.5K after a drop from 87K. Ethereum is falling below 2.65K. Why? The US 10Y hits 5.15% — its highest since 2007. When the risk-free yield goes above 5%, every non-coupon asset (crypto) has to prove its value.
• BTC : 84,581$ (+0.23%) — 237M$ in long liquidations yesterday, ETF rebound (+159M$). Resistance 87K rejected. Support 82K at stake.
• ETH : ~2,646$ — sharp rejection at 2,786$ / 2,800$. ETH open interest 13M ETH (34.8B$). ETH ETF still in outflows. Critical zone: 2,544$ — 2,626$.
• MACRO : 10Y 5.15% (2007), Fed hawkish — 75.3% probability of a rate hike in October. PMI 58.4 (strong expansion). Dollar at 100.80.
Crypto Fear & Greed has dropped toward the neutral/fear zone (~41-43). This looks like leverage being cleaned up, not capitulation. But watch out: a 10Y above 5% is a wall for crypto as long as the Fed stays aggressive.
You translate the market as it moves—or are you just watching the train go by? Share your take: do you think BTC retests 87K before the end of the quarter, or do we break 82K first?
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