U.S. Stock Market Wrap: A Storm Sweeps Through the Bond Market; Early Cracks Appear in AI Credit; Money Hides in Two Safe Havens
Brothers, tonight’s tape can be summed up with one word: sell off. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to the highest level since 2004, and the 10-year yield broke above 5.2% for the first time since 2007.
The money market is now pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike in October and an 80% chance in December. Oil is whipsawing: Brent holds above 107. A rumor about the Hormuz deal got debunked by Iran within an hour. The U.S. dollar strengthens; gold dips; Bitcoin is flat around 84,000.
But the indices closed flat—internal structure tells you where the money went. The NYSE has seen eight consecutive days of more stocks hitting new lows than new highs, and this pattern held 13 out of 14 days. Funds didn’t flee; they simply tightened the circle—hiding in Healthcare and in AI application-side names with real profits. Eli Lilly rose 2.68% after a new insulin approval; Meta gained 4.5% to a nearly one-year high.
The real risk is on the AI credit front. Oracle’s New Mexico data center announced force majeure; CDS spreads spiked to a historical high, and the stock fell 3.5%. Next year, AI capex will be $1.3 trillion—half funded by debt. With financing costs this high, even the giants can’t take it. In the storage supply chain, Western Digital slid nearly 5%, while ARM dropped 8%. That’s the signal.
One takeaway: if yields don’t turn around, don’t talk about launching an offensive in risk assets. This isn’t a time to bottom-fish—it’s time to see who has strong cash flow and who isn’t living off borrowed money. Keep an eye on oil prices and U.S. Treasuries. If these two stabilize, that’s when the next round can begin. #美联储10月加息概率升至69.7% #比特币本周回落至约84600美元 #美国30年期国债收益率触及2004年来最高 #美债10年期收益率创19年新高 #比特币24小时跌3.3%失守83000美元 $BTC $CL $XAU
Brothers, tonight’s tape can be summed up with one word: sell off. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to the highest level since 2004, and the 10-year yield broke above 5.2% for the first time since 2007.
The money market is now pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike in October and an 80% chance in December. Oil is whipsawing: Brent holds above 107. A rumor about the Hormuz deal got debunked by Iran within an hour. The U.S. dollar strengthens; gold dips; Bitcoin is flat around 84,000.
But the indices closed flat—internal structure tells you where the money went. The NYSE has seen eight consecutive days of more stocks hitting new lows than new highs, and this pattern held 13 out of 14 days. Funds didn’t flee; they simply tightened the circle—hiding in Healthcare and in AI application-side names with real profits. Eli Lilly rose 2.68% after a new insulin approval; Meta gained 4.5% to a nearly one-year high.
The real risk is on the AI credit front. Oracle’s New Mexico data center announced force majeure; CDS spreads spiked to a historical high, and the stock fell 3.5%. Next year, AI capex will be $1.3 trillion—half funded by debt. With financing costs this high, even the giants can’t take it. In the storage supply chain, Western Digital slid nearly 5%, while ARM dropped 8%. That’s the signal.
One takeaway: if yields don’t turn around, don’t talk about launching an offensive in risk assets. This isn’t a time to bottom-fish—it’s time to see who has strong cash flow and who isn’t living off borrowed money. Keep an eye on oil prices and U.S. Treasuries. If these two stabilize, that’s when the next round can begin. #美联储10月加息概率升至69.7% #比特币本周回落至约84600美元 #美国30年期国债收益率触及2004年来最高 #美债10年期收益率创19年新高 #比特币24小时跌3.3%失守83000美元 $BTC $CL $XAU
