In this October FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 69.7%, while the probability of holding steady—keeping the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%—is 30.3%. Move one row down on the same futures pricing table: by December, the cumulative increase of 50 basis points accounts for 54.8%, an increase of 25 basis points is 38.7%, and no hike at all is only 6.5%.
The source of this number needs to be made clear: the 69.7% figure is not a forecast provided by any institution. It is derived by working backward from the quotes of federal funds futures. The quotes change every day, and it changes with them. The September 16 decision was already written into it: a 25-basis-point hike, landing in the 3.75% to 4.00% range. In the same week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in 19 years.
I laid out the readings one by one. On the interest-rate side stands bond yields. On the crypto side, what really counts are the quotes and trades—there is no “cost” recorded on-chain under any name that wrote down the cost of that money, so you can only go look elsewhere.
Those remaining 30% should not be treated like a decimal. In October, 30.3% stays unchanged—far wider than December’s 6.5% line. A table that tracks the quotes cannot draw a conclusion; it only records which side had more money standing on it that day.
On the day the probability was raised to 69.7%, the four names’ readings on Binance’s spot watchlist split into two groups: Bitcoin at -0.37% and Ethereum at -0.38% (both below zero), Solana at 0.98% and Cardano at 3.26% (both above zero). In the seven-day period, all four were positive: 10.25%, 9.55%, 15.51%, and 23.15% in order; their approximate traded sizes were $169 billion, $327.7 billion, $68.5 billion, and $9.3 billion, respectively. The boundary between the two windows falls on different names—whichever cost-curve connects them was not written on anyone’s own ledger. BNB, the platform token, is also listed.
Based on the current readings, the one area that truly changes is in the default option: in October, there is still a 30% chance of no change, but by December it drops to 6.5%. The main scenario shifts from “whether to hike” to “how many times to hike.” Here’s a testable boundary: in the next two weeks, if the October line retreats back to a 50-50 split and bond yields fall accordingly, this whole explanation falls apart. If the two lines continue moving upward and the December 6.5% gets pushed even lower, then this way of reading it holds—four names’ prices and trades, and Binance’s spot watchlist presents a fresh lineup every day. This article is for recording viewpoints only and does not constitute investment advice.$SAGA
$XAI
$QNT
#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
The source of this number needs to be made clear: the 69.7% figure is not a forecast provided by any institution. It is derived by working backward from the quotes of federal funds futures. The quotes change every day, and it changes with them. The September 16 decision was already written into it: a 25-basis-point hike, landing in the 3.75% to 4.00% range. In the same week, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in 19 years.
I laid out the readings one by one. On the interest-rate side stands bond yields. On the crypto side, what really counts are the quotes and trades—there is no “cost” recorded on-chain under any name that wrote down the cost of that money, so you can only go look elsewhere.
Those remaining 30% should not be treated like a decimal. In October, 30.3% stays unchanged—far wider than December’s 6.5% line. A table that tracks the quotes cannot draw a conclusion; it only records which side had more money standing on it that day.
On the day the probability was raised to 69.7%, the four names’ readings on Binance’s spot watchlist split into two groups: Bitcoin at -0.37% and Ethereum at -0.38% (both below zero), Solana at 0.98% and Cardano at 3.26% (both above zero). In the seven-day period, all four were positive: 10.25%, 9.55%, 15.51%, and 23.15% in order; their approximate traded sizes were $169 billion, $327.7 billion, $68.5 billion, and $9.3 billion, respectively. The boundary between the two windows falls on different names—whichever cost-curve connects them was not written on anyone’s own ledger. BNB, the platform token, is also listed.
Based on the current readings, the one area that truly changes is in the default option: in October, there is still a 30% chance of no change, but by December it drops to 6.5%. The main scenario shifts from “whether to hike” to “how many times to hike.” Here’s a testable boundary: in the next two weeks, if the October line retreats back to a 50-50 split and bond yields fall accordingly, this whole explanation falls apart. If the two lines continue moving upward and the December 6.5% gets pushed even lower, then this way of reading it holds—four names’ prices and trades, and Binance’s spot watchlist presents a fresh lineup every day. This article is for recording viewpoints only and does not constitute investment advice.$SAGA
$XAI
$QNT
#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
