$QNT $ETC $H š„ Standard Chartered turns DeFi into a 2030 chartāsix cards at once will leave you stunned
Family, traditional banks are no longer pretending. Standard Charteredās Geoffrey Kendrick strings UNI, AAVE, MORPHO, LINK, ARB, and SKY into a ātokenized finance full-stackā:
RWA on-chain assets of $340B ā $4T by Apr 2028; DeFi share 3.5% ā 30% by 2030; DeFi TVL hits $2.7T, 37x. Then the protocol tokens collectively moon by dozens of times š
But donāt rush to call it a bull cycle. This isnāt six independent āall bullishāāitās one macro assumption multiplied by six transmission paths:
UNI eats trading fees; AAVE/MORPHO eat lending interest; LINK eats data and cross-chain fees; ARB eats the TradFi on-chain execution layer; SKY eats the stablecoin spread.
The ARB multiple is the craziest, with the lowest starting point; SKY is the most conservative, only giving up to 2028āmeanwhile āold stablecoinsā are the most worried about regulatory repricing š
Standard Chartered isnāt drawing from an untouchable script either: the BTC and ETH endgames look sexy, but the path in between can be recalculated at any time. DeFi is even harsherāif RWA takes a year, if regulation clamps down, if fee switches donāt turn on, the staircase chart just breaks in midair.
If you really want to look, watch these 4 switches:
1ļøā£ Can RWA be onboarded to the chain in a compliant way?
2ļøā£ Can fees flow into tokens?
3ļøā£ Will institutions actually lock up?
4ļøā£ Will the new US/EU/HK regulation hit hard?
If any of the four stay off, AAVE 3500 and ARB 10 are just PPT. If all four are on, even 40x might still not be enough.
One sentence: Wall Street is starting to value DeFi using an infrastructure lens, but 30ā70x is narrative pricingānot a margin of safety. Donāt hear ā3500 in 2030ā and think ābreak even next yearā š
Just chattingādonāt treat it as buy/sell advice. #ē¾čåØ10ęå ęÆę¦ēåč³69.7% #ē¾åŗ10幓ęę¶ēēå19幓ę°é« #ē¾å½ęęØåØē¾å 稳å®åøęµ·å¤ä½æēØ
Family, traditional banks are no longer pretending. Standard Charteredās Geoffrey Kendrick strings UNI, AAVE, MORPHO, LINK, ARB, and SKY into a ātokenized finance full-stackā:
RWA on-chain assets of $340B ā $4T by Apr 2028; DeFi share 3.5% ā 30% by 2030; DeFi TVL hits $2.7T, 37x. Then the protocol tokens collectively moon by dozens of times š
But donāt rush to call it a bull cycle. This isnāt six independent āall bullishāāitās one macro assumption multiplied by six transmission paths:
UNI eats trading fees; AAVE/MORPHO eat lending interest; LINK eats data and cross-chain fees; ARB eats the TradFi on-chain execution layer; SKY eats the stablecoin spread.
The ARB multiple is the craziest, with the lowest starting point; SKY is the most conservative, only giving up to 2028āmeanwhile āold stablecoinsā are the most worried about regulatory repricing š
Standard Chartered isnāt drawing from an untouchable script either: the BTC and ETH endgames look sexy, but the path in between can be recalculated at any time. DeFi is even harsherāif RWA takes a year, if regulation clamps down, if fee switches donāt turn on, the staircase chart just breaks in midair.
If you really want to look, watch these 4 switches:
1ļøā£ Can RWA be onboarded to the chain in a compliant way?
2ļøā£ Can fees flow into tokens?
3ļøā£ Will institutions actually lock up?
4ļøā£ Will the new US/EU/HK regulation hit hard?
If any of the four stay off, AAVE 3500 and ARB 10 are just PPT. If all four are on, even 40x might still not be enough.
One sentence: Wall Street is starting to value DeFi using an infrastructure lens, but 30ā70x is narrative pricingānot a margin of safety. Donāt hear ā3500 in 2030ā and think ābreak even next yearā š
Just chattingādonāt treat it as buy/sell advice. #ē¾čåØ10ęå ęÆę¦ēåč³69.7% #ē¾åŗ10幓ęę¶ēēå19幓ę°é« #ē¾å½ęęØåØē¾å 稳å®åøęµ·å¤ä½æēØ
