Data cutoff: 22:50 on September 24, 2026 (Beijing time)
FIL’s event path is becoming clear again. Lotus has released its first candidate version supporting NV29 Solstice, and the Calibration testnet is scheduled to be upgraded on September 28; if the tests go smoothly, the target for the official release is the week of October 5, and the mainnet target is the week of October 19. Compared with September 19, engineering certainty has improved significantly, but the exact block height for the mainnet has not been announced yet. The final launch still depends on the testnet migration and subsequent observation.
My action conclusion also adjusts accordingly: the event plan has changed from “pausing and waiting for the timeline” back to “entering the testnet verification phase,” but the current ~US$0.99 is no longer a new expected position. The price previously hit two take-profit ranges in sequence: US$0.90–1.00 and US$1.10–1.25, and the risk-recovery conditions in the original plan have been genuinely triggered. The new official timetable cannot be used as a reason to buy back the portion that was already reduced.
## What this progress changes
The biggest issue earlier was that although FIP-0118 had been accepted, there was no official client, no testnet block height, and no new mainnet timeline. Now the first two have been fulfilled: the embedded Actor v19.0.1 has been released, Lotus v1.37.0-rc1 has completed packaging, and the Calibration upgrade block height has been determined to be 4109133, corresponding to 20:59:30 Beijing time on September 28.
This shows that FIP-0118 has moved from “whether it can be achieved” into “whether it can be stably migrated after implementation.” Fil+ writing will stop after NV29; new sectors will no longer rely on DataCap to obtain the highest-quality adjusted compute power. The reward Actor will also be installed with the initial state needed for service-reward installation and weight splitting. Engineering risk has not disappeared, but it has clearly dropped compared with September 19.
The unfulfilled evidence is also important. Current mainnet parameters still indicate that the Solstice height is not scheduled; October 19 is only the target week, not a confirmed height that has already been written into the client. The official also clearly states that this Calibration test may require observing multiple compressed quarters, and one week may not be enough. Therefore, passing the test, releasing the official version, and locking the mainnet height are three different milestones that cannot be merged in advance into “the mainnet launch is confirmed.”
## Where the original participating plan has reached
The original event plan treats the total planned amount as 100%. It establishes the first tranche of expected inventory between $0.75 and $0.78, and adds the second tranche after code and test evidence appear. Meanwhile, it also stipulates that you recover 20% first when entering the $0.90 to $1.00 range, and recover 30% when entering the $1.10 to $1.25 range.
The market has already provided a full opportunity for the original execution. FIL not only entered the $0.90 to $1.00 range; on September 19 it also briefly exceeded $1.10 intraday. According to the original discipline, the event balance should have already recovered at least 50% of the originally planned total amount, and only the remaining portion should continue to participate in subsequent testnet and mainnet行情.
If you had already taken profit according to the plan earlier, you should not average back now. If you had not executed earlier, then around $0.99 it is still in the risk-recovery zone, not a reason to chase the position again just because a new timeline was announced. The value of an event study is to gradually realize gains as uncertainty decreases, not to refill the position every time new progress appears.
## How to handle the existing event position
In principle, the remaining event balance should not exceed 50% of the original planned total amount, and you should not add new positions at this time.
Before September 28, $0.94 to $0.96 is the first handoff zone, and $0.91 to $0.92 is the event-structure boundary. If the price oscillates above $0.94, it indicates the market is still waiting for test results. If there is an effective 4-hour breakdown below $0.91, it means funds are trading the test risk early; the remaining event balance should be reduced by another half. When the daily chart breaks below $0.84, the short-term event structure is basically invalid; exit the remaining event balance and do not let short-term trading turn into a long-term trapped position.
First look for $1.02 to $1.065 above. When Calibration has not been completed, if the price surges into $1.06 to $1.10 with strong volume, you can again recover 10% to 15% of the original planned total amount. If, after the test succeeds, it re-enters $1.13 to $1.20, then recover 15% to 20%. Until the precise mainnet height is officially announced, keep no more than 10% to 20% of the original planned total amount as a follow-up tracking position.
If before the mainnet launch the price has already risen above $1.20, but Filecoin Pay business volume, customer renewals, and actual burning have not grown in sync, then you should prioritize realizing profits and not buy all the economic results that have not yet occurred in the first quarter in advance.
## How to participate with a flat (cash) position now
The current price is not suitable for a sprint before September 28. Over the past 24 hours, FIL has been clearly stronger than BTC. The 1-hour momentum is already close to overheated, but trading volume has not expanded with the same strength as the price. Chasing at this level requires taking three risks at the same time: test-result risk, an overall market pullback risk, and the sell-pressure from the prior highs.
With a flat (cash) position, you only keep two participation modes. The first is: after Calibration succeeds and stabilizes, if the price pulls back to $0.94 to $0.97 and the 4-hour chart regains stability, you may use 10% to 15% of the event plan total amount to establish a trial position; exit if $0.91 is lost. The second is: after the precise mainnet height is officially written into Lotus, if the price remains below $1.05, then decide whether to increase to 25% of the event plan total amount. If it turns out that at confirmation time the price is already above $1.10, abandon this round of adding and do not chase based on dates.
The prior long-term spot plan does not move up with the event price. $0.58 to $0.68 remains the 20% observation zone; invest 50% again at $0.48 to $0.57; invest 30% again at $0.35 to $0.47. These levels serve long-term value judgment and cannot be mixed with the short-term event positions for the October upgrade.
## Most likely how things will go next
In the baseline scenario, the Calibration upgrade proceeds smoothly, but the mainnet still needs one to two weeks of observation. FIL will repeatedly trade between $0.94 and $1.065; after the test succeeds, it will then challenge $1.13. Once the mainnet height is locked, it may enter the $1.15 to $1.25 range. This path has the highest probability, but the closer it gets to the mainnet, the bigger the risk of realizing the good news.
In the optimistic scenario, the test succeeds once, the mainnet height is determined quickly, and BTC remains strong. After FIL breaks above $1.13, it may enter $1.20 to $1.35. However, this range has already pre-paid for the October supply decline and the success of the mainnet reform, so it is suitable for gradually realizing profits, not for expanding position size.
In the pessimistic scenario, the testnet encounters reward migration, state compatibility problems, or service contract issues, or the mainnet window is postponed to after November. After the price loses $0.91, the next handoff zone is $0.84 to $0.88. If the project itself has not been removed from NV29, then first it becomes a time repricing issue. Only when FIP-0118 is removed from the upgrade, a key migration fails, and there is no window to repair does the core logic of the event truly become invalid.
## What still needs to be verified after the mainnet goes live
The Solstice mainnet launch does not mean that large-scale destruction starts on the very same day. In the first quarter after launch, the transition of consensus rewards and service rewards will be completed first; the real pressure to destroy will be assessed in subsequent quarters together with the Filecoin Pay business-volume threshold. At the same time, the initial vesting schedule that begins on October 15 is nearing its end. What changes is the speed of new supply, not the reduction of existing circulating volume on that day.
Therefore, whether the remaining event balance in the mainnet should be converted into a long-term balance depends only on four outcomes: whether paid transactions continue to grow, whether service rewards correspond to real customers, whether rewards that do not meet the threshold are destroyed according to the rules, and whether the demand for new collateral and holding can cover the remaining block rewards. Without these outcomes, a technical go-live can only prove the protocol has been completed, not that FIL has already captured value.
## Final Action Conclusion
This update improves the probability that the project delivers, but does not increase the safety margin of the current price. The existing event-balance should continue to be de-risked according to the original plan, while holding only a small tracking position. Do not chase an empty position near $1; wait for the testnet results on September 28. The long-term spot range remains unchanged.
What is truly worth adding to next is not “another development progress,” but the step-by-step landing of Calibration stability, the release of the official version, and the precise mainnet height, in that order. The more complete the engineering evidence, the higher the event success rate. The earlier the price rises, the lower the odds of continuing to participate.
$FIL