Markets are now positioning themselves for the Fed to keep an aggressive stance for MUCH longer.

There is now a 75% chance of at least 3 more rate hikes by June 2027, while the CME FedWatch is projecting a range of 4.75% to 5.00% for June 2027.

U.S. Treasury bond yields are surging across the entire curve:

10 years: above 5.1%, near 2007 levels;

20 years: approaching 5.5%;

30 years: hitting 5.4% today; TLT: below $80 at historical lows.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks long-term U.S. Treasuries, so it typically falls when long-term yields rise. At the same time:

U.S. Dollar Index: above 101; Gold: a little above $4,200; USD/JPY: near 159.

Strong economic data, higher oil prices, inflation risks, and massive capital demand are keeping pressure on rates.

The outlook is starting to look like 2022: a Fed with an aggressive stance, rising rates, and a stronger dollar.

No wonder bonds are surging.

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