#美债10年期收益率创19年新高
Intraday is up by about 5.14%, and the current price is around 5.12%—not seen since July 2007. On Wednesday alone it jumped 13–15 basis points, one of the biggest single-day moves since the tariff shock in April last year.
Break it down:
• The 2-year is around 4.9% → the Fed path has been rewritten, with nearly 70% pricing for a rate hike in October
• The 10-year and 30-year rise together → fiscal supply + term premium are also being repriced higher
• Most of the increase is real yields, not a runaway break-even inflation
• PMI is running hot, oil prices are back to 100, and the 5-year auction is on the weak side—four things stacking up in one day
At 5.1% is a psychological level, not 15% like in 1981. But it’s already painful enough for mortgage rates and discounted valuations. The next stop to watch is 5.25%–5.50%.
Oil prices and CPI will determine whether this is the new normal range—or an overshoot.
$BTC
Intraday is up by about 5.14%, and the current price is around 5.12%—not seen since July 2007. On Wednesday alone it jumped 13–15 basis points, one of the biggest single-day moves since the tariff shock in April last year.
Break it down:
• The 2-year is around 4.9% → the Fed path has been rewritten, with nearly 70% pricing for a rate hike in October
• The 10-year and 30-year rise together → fiscal supply + term premium are also being repriced higher
• Most of the increase is real yields, not a runaway break-even inflation
• PMI is running hot, oil prices are back to 100, and the 5-year auction is on the weak side—four things stacking up in one day
At 5.1% is a psychological level, not 15% like in 1981. But it’s already painful enough for mortgage rates and discounted valuations. The next stop to watch is 5.25%–5.50%.
Oil prices and CPI will determine whether this is the new normal range—or an overshoot.
$BTC
