#美联储10月加息概率升至69.7%
CME FedWatch: 69.7% odds of a 25bp hike in October, with 30.3% priced in for staying on hold. Current rate: 3.75%–4.00%. Next meeting 10/27–28
Even tougher is December—holding steady is left at just 6.5%, with a cumulative +50bp to 4.25%–4.50% priced at 54.8%. The market is already treating two consecutive hikes within the year as the baseline
Just a week ago, after the most recent hike, it was only 40%. Stronger-than-expected PMI + hawkish comments from officials like Bullard + the 10-year yield once reaching 5.135%—all pushed expectations higher
This is reversible market pricing. If nonfarm payrolls, CPI, or oil prices move even a bit, the 70% can easily fall back to 50%
$BTC
$ETH
CME FedWatch: 69.7% odds of a 25bp hike in October, with 30.3% priced in for staying on hold. Current rate: 3.75%–4.00%. Next meeting 10/27–28
Even tougher is December—holding steady is left at just 6.5%, with a cumulative +50bp to 4.25%–4.50% priced at 54.8%. The market is already treating two consecutive hikes within the year as the baseline
Just a week ago, after the most recent hike, it was only 40%. Stronger-than-expected PMI + hawkish comments from officials like Bullard + the 10-year yield once reaching 5.135%—all pushed expectations higher
This is reversible market pricing. If nonfarm payrolls, CPI, or oil prices move even a bit, the 70% can easily fall back to 50%
$BTC
$ETH
