Perpl gives me lottery odds ๐ฏ
12% on Yes.
This is one of my favorite pure asymmetry trades in the batch.
I'm taking Yes on a Perpl token before December 31.
Do I think the market is crazy for having 88% on No?
No.
I just think 12% makes the payoff interesting enough to take the other side with a small position.
Here's the math.
At roughly 12%, $10 of Yes exposure represents about $83 if the prediction eventually resolves Yes, before fees and execution differences.
That's around $73 of potential profit on a $10 risk.
Of course, there's a reason the payout looks like that.
Polymarket thinks the event probably doesn't happen.
But this is precisely why I don't need huge size.
I'd rather take several carefully selected asymmetric predictions than throw the same money at another token hoping for a 7x.
I'll rotate a little $MON exposure into this one.
If Perpl token expectations suddenly increase, the probability itself can move long before any actual launch.
12% becoming 25% is already a trade.
I can sell there.
That's the beauty of getting there before consensus.
#Altcoin Season#
12% on Yes.
This is one of my favorite pure asymmetry trades in the batch.
I'm taking Yes on a Perpl token before December 31.
Do I think the market is crazy for having 88% on No?
No.
I just think 12% makes the payoff interesting enough to take the other side with a small position.
Here's the math.
At roughly 12%, $10 of Yes exposure represents about $83 if the prediction eventually resolves Yes, before fees and execution differences.
That's around $73 of potential profit on a $10 risk.
Of course, there's a reason the payout looks like that.
Polymarket thinks the event probably doesn't happen.
But this is precisely why I don't need huge size.
I'd rather take several carefully selected asymmetric predictions than throw the same money at another token hoping for a 7x.
I'll rotate a little $MON exposure into this one.
If Perpl token expectations suddenly increase, the probability itself can move long before any actual launch.
12% becoming 25% is already a trade.
I can sell there.
That's the beauty of getting there before consensus.
#Altcoin Season#
