$ETH Yesterday, after a quick sell-off, it is currently in a weak rebound phase. However, as long as spot capital still has support and willingness to absorb, we can temporarily define this round of decline first as a leveraged washout after the prior upswing—not a medium-term trend reversal. Still, the 1-hour MACD remains below the zero line and rebound momentum is mediocre, so the short-term repair has not yet been completed.
For now, the key zones to watch are 2663—2690—2725. 2663 is the first support. 2690 has already completed the role-switch from resistance to support. If price again puts volume behind it and holds above 2690, the rebound can further target 2725. 2725 is the crucial neckline resistance after this drop. Only if price regains and holds above 2725 can the short-term structure truly turn stronger again. After that, we can look toward 2760 and then 2806.
Conversely, if 2690—2725 keeps facing pressure and forms a 1H sideways stall (滞涨), especially if it breaks back below 2663 again, then we need to guard against a second round of leveraged washout. To the downside, first watch 2649, and then focus on the core defense around 2608. If 2608 shows a clear stop-the-fall signal on 15M/1H—followed by a contraction in sell volume—and then price re-accumulates volume and closes back up, that can be used as a spot to re-enter some long positions. But if 2608 breaks down decisively and the subsequent rebound cannot reclaim it, then this adjustment will no longer be just a normal leveraged washout; we would need to lower our assessment of whether the upswing can continue.
Summary: Hold 2663 to target 2690→2725. If 2725 is regained and held, bulls regain the timing. If the attempt to push toward 2725 fails and price falls back below 2663, guard against a second quick washout and mainly wait for support at 2608. Medium-term bias is still somewhat bullish for now, but until 2725 is reclaimed, treat it only as a weak rebound—don’t rush to chase longs.
For now, the key zones to watch are 2663—2690—2725. 2663 is the first support. 2690 has already completed the role-switch from resistance to support. If price again puts volume behind it and holds above 2690, the rebound can further target 2725. 2725 is the crucial neckline resistance after this drop. Only if price regains and holds above 2725 can the short-term structure truly turn stronger again. After that, we can look toward 2760 and then 2806.
Conversely, if 2690—2725 keeps facing pressure and forms a 1H sideways stall (滞涨), especially if it breaks back below 2663 again, then we need to guard against a second round of leveraged washout. To the downside, first watch 2649, and then focus on the core defense around 2608. If 2608 shows a clear stop-the-fall signal on 15M/1H—followed by a contraction in sell volume—and then price re-accumulates volume and closes back up, that can be used as a spot to re-enter some long positions. But if 2608 breaks down decisively and the subsequent rebound cannot reclaim it, then this adjustment will no longer be just a normal leveraged washout; we would need to lower our assessment of whether the upswing can continue.
Summary: Hold 2663 to target 2690→2725. If 2725 is regained and held, bulls regain the timing. If the attempt to push toward 2725 fails and price falls back below 2663, guard against a second quick washout and mainly wait for support at 2608. Medium-term bias is still somewhat bullish for now, but until 2725 is reclaimed, treat it only as a weak rebound—don’t rush to chase longs.
