Global market risk appetite cools rapidly, with the overall trading environment undergoing a structural shift, and risk assets collectively come under pressure.
Key data at the moment:
Bitcoin falls back into the $84,300 range;
Brent crude oil closes strongly at $103.08;
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note holds above 5%;
The U.S. dollar index rises in tandem, reaching a two-month high.
Oil prices rebound, inflation warms again, and U.S. Treasury yields surge—triple macro pressures combine to directly suppress the broader performance of overvalued tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
BTC: Institutional funds see net inflows, yet the price weakens passively
Bitcoin previously surged to around $87,300, then quickly pulled back, falling below the $85,000 level.
Notably, on September 22, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a large net inflow of $715 million.
The market shows a typical pattern of divergence:
Institutions are eager to buy the dip and the logic for capital inflows is steady, but in the short term, macro headwinds fully dominate market direction. When money is there but the trend is weak, it’s a typical consolidation and digestion phase under pressure.
The 5% U.S. Treasury yield is the market’s biggest risk anchor right now
Latest U.S. economic data remains strong, and inflation resilience exceeds expectations:
In August, nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs; the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%; retail sales surged 1.2% month over month.
Economic activity remains hot, meaning the Federal Reserve has no near-term impetus to ease; the high-rate environment will continue to suppress growth-type risk assets.
Crude oil reverses its downtrend, pushing up inflation expectations again
Affected by geopolitical uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surged 3.86% in a single day, holding the $103 level and completely ending the prior pullback trend.
Oil prices strongly rebounded. In an already high Treasury yield environment, they once again lift market inflation expectations, further locking in a more hawkish Fed stance and exerting sustained pressure on both the stock market and the crypto market.
U.S. stock market performance
S&P 500: -0.75%
Nasdaq: -1.13%
Dow Jones Index: -0.68%
Although the AI sector still offers opportunities for structural long positions, the elevated U.S. Treasury yields at high levels create a clear valuation drag on high-multiple growth stocks, and overall risk appetite has converged across the board.
Key logic to watch going forward
The market has fully switched from a “risk-on preference” to a “risk-avoidance, pressure-and-consolidation” mode.
Two key turning points to watch next
1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield falls back below 5%
International oil prices cool off, and inflation expectations fall
Only if the two major macro pressures ease at the same time can risk assets such as the Nasdaq and cryptocurrencies regain upside momentum;
If the high-interest-rate and high-oil-price regime persists, then the market’s main rhythm will be pressure at elevated levels and range-bound consolidation.
