Contracts that may see a slight downward grind and sell-off today
Bearish signals are strengthening. These coins are still rising in price, but the order book structure has already loosened. The risk of chasing higher is greater than what the percentage gain numbers alone seem to suggest.
Don’t focus only on the green percentage gains. The concern isn’t that price won’t rise—it’s that as it keeps rising, there won’t be enough follow-through support to keep it going.
Next, watch whether the pullback has any sign of bottoming out, and whether the support (follow-through) continues to thin.
ACEUSDT is up 5.1% intraday, but the open interest over the past 24 hours has actually decreased by 2.4%. The funding rate has also been positive for longs for the last 2 periods.
This suggests the price rally isn’t attracting fresh long positions in sync. Instead, existing positions seem to be withdrawing. There’s a divergence between the direction of the price increase and the direction of open interest.
The counter-signal is that the open interest on the 1-hour timeframe has ticked up slightly by 0.2%, meaning short-term hands haven’t fully loosened yet.
LSKUSDT has surged 10.17%, the strongest among the three, but its funding rate is -0.19%—and shorts have been receiving funding for 8 straight periods.
When it rises a lot but shorts keep getting paid to short the whole time, it indicates that the short side has not admitted defeat and exited. Liquidity is dispersing.
The counter-signal is that open interest over the past 24 hours is still increasing by 3.5%, so there hasn’t been an obvious outflow of capital from the market.
SUPERUSDT is up 8.09%, and open interest over the past 24 hours has exploded by 26.9%, which looks like capital inflow driving the rally.
However, the 1-hour open interest has reversed and fallen by 3.9%, and the Super Trend indicator also shows downward movement. This suggests the wave of newly added positions may already be starting to ebb.
The counter-signal is that the proportion of aggressive buy orders is still as high as 0.98—near-term buying strength hasn’t disappeared immediately.
If the follow-through continues to thin and the open interest growth rate turns downward for these three coins, then this “downward grind and pullback” thesis will play out. If volume ramps up again and price holds steady, then this bearish assessment should be reconsidered.
#ACE #LSK #SUPER
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5. For informational reference only—please verify independently.
Bearish signals are strengthening. These coins are still rising in price, but the order book structure has already loosened. The risk of chasing higher is greater than what the percentage gain numbers alone seem to suggest.
Don’t focus only on the green percentage gains. The concern isn’t that price won’t rise—it’s that as it keeps rising, there won’t be enough follow-through support to keep it going.
Next, watch whether the pullback has any sign of bottoming out, and whether the support (follow-through) continues to thin.
ACEUSDT is up 5.1% intraday, but the open interest over the past 24 hours has actually decreased by 2.4%. The funding rate has also been positive for longs for the last 2 periods.
This suggests the price rally isn’t attracting fresh long positions in sync. Instead, existing positions seem to be withdrawing. There’s a divergence between the direction of the price increase and the direction of open interest.
The counter-signal is that the open interest on the 1-hour timeframe has ticked up slightly by 0.2%, meaning short-term hands haven’t fully loosened yet.
LSKUSDT has surged 10.17%, the strongest among the three, but its funding rate is -0.19%—and shorts have been receiving funding for 8 straight periods.
When it rises a lot but shorts keep getting paid to short the whole time, it indicates that the short side has not admitted defeat and exited. Liquidity is dispersing.
The counter-signal is that open interest over the past 24 hours is still increasing by 3.5%, so there hasn’t been an obvious outflow of capital from the market.
SUPERUSDT is up 8.09%, and open interest over the past 24 hours has exploded by 26.9%, which looks like capital inflow driving the rally.
However, the 1-hour open interest has reversed and fallen by 3.9%, and the Super Trend indicator also shows downward movement. This suggests the wave of newly added positions may already be starting to ebb.
The counter-signal is that the proportion of aggressive buy orders is still as high as 0.98—near-term buying strength hasn’t disappeared immediately.
If the follow-through continues to thin and the open interest growth rate turns downward for these three coins, then this “downward grind and pullback” thesis will play out. If volume ramps up again and price holds steady, then this bearish assessment should be reconsidered.
#ACE #LSK #SUPER
Compiled with assistance from Claude Fable 5. For informational reference only—please verify independently.
