š Is BTC in a downtrend or building up power? While whales quietly accumulate, the market is confused
š Key Data
- BTCās daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover, but before the crossover there was a 15% surge
- According to Glassnode, over the past two weeks the number of large-whale transfers into Bitcoin addresses increased by 38%, but the average address balance didnāt change
- Nasdaq ETF inflows have stopped; last week saw net outflows of $3.16M
- Fear & Greed Index is 71, but the bearish traders sentiment index is actually hitting a new high at 45%
- Bitcoin hashrate dropped by 7% over the past month, but the number of active mining machines increased by 12%
š Analysis
ćWhale Behavior Is AbnormalćThe biggest anomaly right now is whale behavior. When market fear sentiment (bearish sentiment index hitting a new high) reaches its peak, thatās often the best time for whales to quietly buy. Historical data shows that within the two weeks after each time large-scale whale inflows happen, BTC typically rises by at least 10%. This āI buy when the market is panickingā pattern appeared in both the 2018 bear market bottom and the 2022 bear market bottom. If the pattern repeats, this is likely the buying point. But this conclusion would be invalidated if the Federal Reserve suddenly announces that Taper will start earlier.
ćFundamentals DivergencećAnother key contradiction is fundamentals. While the stop in Nasdaq ETF inflows suggests institutions are cautious, Bitcoinās hashrate falling usually comes with price declines. But this time, as hashrate drops, the number of active miners actually increasesāsuggesting new miners may be using AI algorithms to judge electricity costs. If over the next two weeks BTC price continues to dip to below $60,000, it would indicate that the AIās electricity-taking and whale capital sources are real, and in that case the downtrend is likely to continue.
ćSentiment TrapćThe current Fear & Greed Index shows greed, yet the bearish traders sentiment index shows fear. This divergence can be a sign the market is about to reverse, but it could also be a false signal before the final big pullback. If next weekās CPI data comes in better than expected, showing that the market is overly optimistic about Fed rate-cut expectations, then you should watch out for sell pressure above $70,000.
š” Conclusion
I believe BTC is most likely in a bottoming zone in the $58,000ā$62,000 range, with whales taking advantage of the situation to buy. If the price holds above $64,000 and starts rebounding, you can gradually build positions. However, this view has invalidation conditions: if in October the Fed announces a rate cut smaller than expected (for example, only 25 basis points), or if Bitcoin hashrate continues to fallāindicating whale capital may be exiting the crypto marketāthen you should continue to stay on the sidelines.
This article has no sponsorship from any project. The author does not hold any of the assets mentioned in this text. According to The Block data
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
ā ļø Not investment advice
š Key Data
- BTCās daily MACD has formed a bearish crossover, but before the crossover there was a 15% surge
- According to Glassnode, over the past two weeks the number of large-whale transfers into Bitcoin addresses increased by 38%, but the average address balance didnāt change
- Nasdaq ETF inflows have stopped; last week saw net outflows of $3.16M
- Fear & Greed Index is 71, but the bearish traders sentiment index is actually hitting a new high at 45%
- Bitcoin hashrate dropped by 7% over the past month, but the number of active mining machines increased by 12%
š Analysis
ćWhale Behavior Is AbnormalćThe biggest anomaly right now is whale behavior. When market fear sentiment (bearish sentiment index hitting a new high) reaches its peak, thatās often the best time for whales to quietly buy. Historical data shows that within the two weeks after each time large-scale whale inflows happen, BTC typically rises by at least 10%. This āI buy when the market is panickingā pattern appeared in both the 2018 bear market bottom and the 2022 bear market bottom. If the pattern repeats, this is likely the buying point. But this conclusion would be invalidated if the Federal Reserve suddenly announces that Taper will start earlier.
ćFundamentals DivergencećAnother key contradiction is fundamentals. While the stop in Nasdaq ETF inflows suggests institutions are cautious, Bitcoinās hashrate falling usually comes with price declines. But this time, as hashrate drops, the number of active miners actually increasesāsuggesting new miners may be using AI algorithms to judge electricity costs. If over the next two weeks BTC price continues to dip to below $60,000, it would indicate that the AIās electricity-taking and whale capital sources are real, and in that case the downtrend is likely to continue.
ćSentiment TrapćThe current Fear & Greed Index shows greed, yet the bearish traders sentiment index shows fear. This divergence can be a sign the market is about to reverse, but it could also be a false signal before the final big pullback. If next weekās CPI data comes in better than expected, showing that the market is overly optimistic about Fed rate-cut expectations, then you should watch out for sell pressure above $70,000.
š” Conclusion
I believe BTC is most likely in a bottoming zone in the $58,000ā$62,000 range, with whales taking advantage of the situation to buy. If the price holds above $64,000 and starts rebounding, you can gradually build positions. However, this view has invalidation conditions: if in October the Fed announces a rate cut smaller than expected (for example, only 25 basis points), or if Bitcoin hashrate continues to fallāindicating whale capital may be exiting the crypto marketāthen you should continue to stay on the sidelines.
This article has no sponsorship from any project. The author does not hold any of the assets mentioned in this text. According to The Block data
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
ā ļø Not investment advice