After breaking through recently, Bitcoin has entered a new uptrend phase. The bottom of the bear market in this cycle is essentially confirmed to be around $57,000 near the end of June this year. Based on the bullish trend line after the breakout, the short-term target price for this stage of Bitcoin is around $103,000, though a 20% to 30% pullback may still occur along the way upward. The key support below first lies at the former resistance level of $83,000. A deeper long-term line of defense is the bull-market support band in the $71,000 to $72,000 range, as well as the 200-day moving average near $70,000.
This round of the market shows a clear pattern of narrowing volatility, largely due to the large-scale entry of institutional capital. With the spot Bitcoin ETF approved for listing, several publicly traded companies—and even the U.S. federal government—have begun to include it as a reserve asset, gradually shifting control to institutions. Compared with historical cycles, the drawdowns of the 2013 and 2017 bear markets from their peak were all more than 85%, while the 2021 decline was 78%. In this round, the drop from the $126,000 peak to the $57,000 low narrowed to 54.2%. Although market maturity slows the gains that come from hundreds-of-times “blow-off tops,” the damage from extreme crashes is also reduced to the same extent.
On-chain indicators and ecosystem adoption are providing ongoing support for this cycle’s行情. The 365-day MVRV moving average, which measures overall profitability for coin holders, has turned positive again. The total crypto market capitalization has also returned above $3 trillion. X has started working with multiple trading platforms to provide real-time quotes for assets such as Bitcoin and Tesla, lowering the barrier for retail investors to check market conditions. Meanwhile, driven by tokenized assets and international settlement demand, compliant stablecoins are becoming the core bridge connecting traditional U.S. dollar finance with on-chain trading.
#比特币 #加密货币 #blockchain
This round of the market shows a clear pattern of narrowing volatility, largely due to the large-scale entry of institutional capital. With the spot Bitcoin ETF approved for listing, several publicly traded companies—and even the U.S. federal government—have begun to include it as a reserve asset, gradually shifting control to institutions. Compared with historical cycles, the drawdowns of the 2013 and 2017 bear markets from their peak were all more than 85%, while the 2021 decline was 78%. In this round, the drop from the $126,000 peak to the $57,000 low narrowed to 54.2%. Although market maturity slows the gains that come from hundreds-of-times “blow-off tops,” the damage from extreme crashes is also reduced to the same extent.
On-chain indicators and ecosystem adoption are providing ongoing support for this cycle’s行情. The 365-day MVRV moving average, which measures overall profitability for coin holders, has turned positive again. The total crypto market capitalization has also returned above $3 trillion. X has started working with multiple trading platforms to provide real-time quotes for assets such as Bitcoin and Tesla, lowering the barrier for retail investors to check market conditions. Meanwhile, driven by tokenized assets and international settlement demand, compliant stablecoins are becoming the core bridge connecting traditional U.S. dollar finance with on-chain trading.
#比特币 #加密货币 #blockchain
