Arthur Hayes, one of the founders of the BitMEX platform, argues that the AI debt crisis could actually be a bullish factor for Bitcoin, even if a slowdown in the AI sector itself is negative for technology companies. In his latest article titled "Safety First," he explained that a slowdown in AI development may reduce demand for computing power, putting pressure on the massive debt used to finance data centers and AI infrastructure.
Why might weak AI cash flows be good for digital currencies?
Hayes links these debts to private credit firms and insurance companies, warning that weak cash flows from AI companies could lead to lower credit ratings and reveal a capital shortfall in the insurance sector. According to Hayes, this situation could drive one of two possible government responses:
- The United States becoming the “buyer of last resort” by guaranteeing demand for AI-related computing and supporting investment in data centers—especially if AI is considered strategically important in competition with China.
- Or the government could step in to prevent a broader financial crisis if a decline in the value of AI-linked assets causes problems for insurance companies and other financial institutions.
Hayes believes that in both cases, Bitcoin holders and digital-asset investors would benefit, because both scenarios involve more government borrowing and monetary expansion—meaning an increase in the amount of money circulating in financial markets, which could push investors toward assets such as Bitcoin and other digital currencies.
The AI debt crisis is growing
This analysis comes after reports indicating that AI companies already account for roughly 40% of total new long-term investment-grade debts, with expectations that their financing needs will grow further in the future. Apollo estimates that the AI sector may require more than $2 trillion in additional high-quality debt, while public bond markets may absorb only less than $1 trillion by 2030 due to concentration and credit-rating constraints.
It is noted that Hayes previously, in May 2026, predicted that Bitcoin would reach $126,000, driven by the global AI race between the United States and China.