$COHR In the past 24 hours it dropped 3.65%. The key is that its funding rate is zero. A zero fee rate in the futures market means long and short are currently completely deadlocked—neither side is paying costs to hold positions, yet the price is still moving downward.
One of the core logics behind the Trump trade is to force manufacturing to return to the country, and semiconductors are the main battlefield. The market is now pricing in possible tariffs that might be imposed after he takes office. For a U.S.-based manufacturer like Coherent (COHR), that’s a short-term positive, but on the chart the stock hasn’t risen—it’s fallen instead. If we judge by a single signal: funding rate at zero combined with the decline suggests the market’s optimistic expectations for this policy are cooling off quickly. Bulls don’t dare to chase, and shorts have neither a cost advantage nor the incentive to aggressively sell—liquidity is being pulled away.
The strongest counterargument is this: if Trump clearly signals that subsidies for the semiconductor industry will be increased, this trade could snap back sharply. But the current data isn’t reflecting that. A second-order effect is that if the price keeps drifting lower, the zero-fee state may drive away two-sided participants, and volatility could suddenly expand. What I’m doing now is watching and not touching it. If the price breaks below the 300 integer level and the funding rate is still zero or turns negative, I’ll open a 3x short position. I’ll place the stop-loss above today’s high, over 325, to ride out a round of panic selling.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #COHR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?
One of the core logics behind the Trump trade is to force manufacturing to return to the country, and semiconductors are the main battlefield. The market is now pricing in possible tariffs that might be imposed after he takes office. For a U.S.-based manufacturer like Coherent (COHR), that’s a short-term positive, but on the chart the stock hasn’t risen—it’s fallen instead. If we judge by a single signal: funding rate at zero combined with the decline suggests the market’s optimistic expectations for this policy are cooling off quickly. Bulls don’t dare to chase, and shorts have neither a cost advantage nor the incentive to aggressively sell—liquidity is being pulled away.
The strongest counterargument is this: if Trump clearly signals that subsidies for the semiconductor industry will be increased, this trade could snap back sharply. But the current data isn’t reflecting that. A second-order effect is that if the price keeps drifting lower, the zero-fee state may drive away two-sided participants, and volatility could suddenly expand. What I’m doing now is watching and not touching it. If the price breaks below the 300 integer level and the funding rate is still zero or turns negative, I’ll open a 3x short position. I’ll place the stop-loss above today’s high, over 325, to ride out a round of panic selling.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #COHR
Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?