Has the bull market really arrived? The disagreement may be between the US and Asia
#比特币突破5月高点逼近8.6万美元
┈➤ The total market cap of USDT is decreasing, while the market cap of USDC is increasing
See Figure 1.
┈➤ USDC is very active, while USDT seems somewhat indifferent
But the issue is: no matter how much BTC is pumped and how USDC flows in, USDT appears to be unmoved.
In April of this year, you could see USDC leading with inflows, and then USDT followed quite actively. But now, USDC inflows are very active, yet USDT hasn’t really responded. See Figure 2.
In other words, the US side is bullish, while Asia doesn’t seem to have much follow-through from capital.
┈➤ Has the bull market come—or not?
That’s one of the reasons why Brother Feng’s view is that the market is likely to move sideways: there is no consensus about a bull market.
Of course, another reason is that Brother Feng believes that during the midterm election period, political and economic factors—along with US-Iran relations—have kept oil volatility alive.
So which is driving the market: USDC or USDT?
Brother Feng thinks USDC’s dominance is increasing strongly, but you can’t ignore USDT. After all, USDT’s trading volume is more than 5 times that of USDC (CoinGecko data is close to 4 times). See Figure 3. Also, this is only spot trading volume; in the derivatives market, USDT’s impact is even more significant.
So Brother Feng believes you shouldn’t conclude that a bull market is here just because USDC’s market cap is rising.
Brother Feng’s view is that after the drop in this bear market, the market will have a need for a rebound. Combined with the low-frequency rate-hike environment over the next year or so, and the subsequent expectations for rate cuts, there should be something like a small bull run similar to 2019.
But before the small bull run, by observing how USDT is reacting now, together with the US midterm elections, US-Iran relations, and oil prices, Brother Feng can’t shake the feeling that there may be further twists and turns. Hopefully Brother Feng is wrong—because nobody doesn’t like a bull market, no matter how big or small.
#比特币突破5月高点逼近8.6万美元
┈➤ The total market cap of USDT is decreasing, while the market cap of USDC is increasing
See Figure 1.
┈➤ USDC is very active, while USDT seems somewhat indifferent
But the issue is: no matter how much BTC is pumped and how USDC flows in, USDT appears to be unmoved.
In April of this year, you could see USDC leading with inflows, and then USDT followed quite actively. But now, USDC inflows are very active, yet USDT hasn’t really responded. See Figure 2.
In other words, the US side is bullish, while Asia doesn’t seem to have much follow-through from capital.
┈➤ Has the bull market come—or not?
That’s one of the reasons why Brother Feng’s view is that the market is likely to move sideways: there is no consensus about a bull market.
Of course, another reason is that Brother Feng believes that during the midterm election period, political and economic factors—along with US-Iran relations—have kept oil volatility alive.
So which is driving the market: USDC or USDT?
Brother Feng thinks USDC’s dominance is increasing strongly, but you can’t ignore USDT. After all, USDT’s trading volume is more than 5 times that of USDC (CoinGecko data is close to 4 times). See Figure 3. Also, this is only spot trading volume; in the derivatives market, USDT’s impact is even more significant.
So Brother Feng believes you shouldn’t conclude that a bull market is here just because USDC’s market cap is rising.
Brother Feng’s view is that after the drop in this bear market, the market will have a need for a rebound. Combined with the low-frequency rate-hike environment over the next year or so, and the subsequent expectations for rate cuts, there should be something like a small bull run similar to 2019.
But before the small bull run, by observing how USDT is reacting now, together with the US midterm elections, US-Iran relations, and oil prices, Brother Feng can’t shake the feeling that there may be further twists and turns. Hopefully Brother Feng is wrong—because nobody doesn’t like a bull market, no matter how big or small.
