Kalshi wants CFTC approval for margin trading on prediction markets.
Letting retail users lever up on event contracts — what could go wrong?
We've seen this movie before. Margin amplifies wins but destroys accounts on the other side. Most people can't handle 2x, let alone what brokers will inevitably offer once the door opens.
Prediction markets are already speculative. Adding leverage turns speculation into a casino with house odds. The behavioral traps write themselves: overconfidence, revenge trading, position sizing disasters.
If you need margin to make a bet, you probably shouldn't be making that bet.
Letting retail users lever up on event contracts — what could go wrong?
We've seen this movie before. Margin amplifies wins but destroys accounts on the other side. Most people can't handle 2x, let alone what brokers will inevitably offer once the door opens.
Prediction markets are already speculative. Adding leverage turns speculation into a casino with house odds. The behavioral traps write themselves: overconfidence, revenge trading, position sizing disasters.
If you need margin to make a bet, you probably shouldn't be making that bet.