#美股超话 Does the U.S. stock market in October really have a “historical win rate”?
From early October through late September, discussions in the U.S. stock market content always mention that “October will be stronger.”
This year there is a concrete real-world question. After the Federal Reserve raised rates last week, the market’s expectations for the rate path were still adjusting.
On September 21, oil prices fell and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined. Meta and chip stocks lifted the U.S. tech sector. The improvement in risk appetite on that day had a real catalyst and didn’t need to be credited to “October is coming.” If oil prices rise again, bond yields move higher, and corporate earnings can’t keep up with valuations, even a gain that’s common in a given month historically would be hard to serve as relief for today’s pressure.
What’s more, the U.S. stock market is not a single uniform price. On September 21, the advance of AI-related stocks differed from that of traditional industries. Some say “the S&P 500 has a high probability of rising in October.” But what readers likely care about are companies like Nvidia, Meta, Apple—or the single stock they personally hold. These companies have different earnings reports, products, and valuation issues, so the index’s seasonality can’t simply be transplanted to individual stocks.
There’s also a trap in looking back at history: people are more likely to remember the rally after an election, while ignoring the pullbacks that occurred along the way. If your funds need to be used on a fixed date, or if you can’t tolerate a period of noticeable decline, then “it will probably rise on average over the next few months” offers limited help. The time horizon, risk tolerance, and the assets you hold must be considered on the same sheet of paper for any comparison to be meaningful.
When I look at the calendar effect, I usually use it to remind myself to ask three questions. First, is the statistical basis reliable—does the sample include interest-rate and oil-price conditions similar to this year? Second, is this rebound supported by just a handful of stocks, or are multiple sectors improving together? Third, how much good news has the current price already priced in? These three questions don’t spread as well as the two words “October,” but they’re more solid than making a decision based on a “win rate.”
Cross-market comparisons are also helpful. Fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong tech stocks, and digital assets sometimes alert you to changes in risk appetite before the U.S. stock index does. I’ll use tools like BiyaPay to view U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and digital assets in one place, so I switch between fewer apps. You can even deposit digital assets, exchange them for U.S. dollars or Hong Kong dollars, and transfer them easily to stocks.
This article does not represent any position
From early October through late September, discussions in the U.S. stock market content always mention that “October will be stronger.”
This year there is a concrete real-world question. After the Federal Reserve raised rates last week, the market’s expectations for the rate path were still adjusting.
On September 21, oil prices fell and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined. Meta and chip stocks lifted the U.S. tech sector. The improvement in risk appetite on that day had a real catalyst and didn’t need to be credited to “October is coming.” If oil prices rise again, bond yields move higher, and corporate earnings can’t keep up with valuations, even a gain that’s common in a given month historically would be hard to serve as relief for today’s pressure.
What’s more, the U.S. stock market is not a single uniform price. On September 21, the advance of AI-related stocks differed from that of traditional industries. Some say “the S&P 500 has a high probability of rising in October.” But what readers likely care about are companies like Nvidia, Meta, Apple—or the single stock they personally hold. These companies have different earnings reports, products, and valuation issues, so the index’s seasonality can’t simply be transplanted to individual stocks.
There’s also a trap in looking back at history: people are more likely to remember the rally after an election, while ignoring the pullbacks that occurred along the way. If your funds need to be used on a fixed date, or if you can’t tolerate a period of noticeable decline, then “it will probably rise on average over the next few months” offers limited help. The time horizon, risk tolerance, and the assets you hold must be considered on the same sheet of paper for any comparison to be meaningful.
When I look at the calendar effect, I usually use it to remind myself to ask three questions. First, is the statistical basis reliable—does the sample include interest-rate and oil-price conditions similar to this year? Second, is this rebound supported by just a handful of stocks, or are multiple sectors improving together? Third, how much good news has the current price already priced in? These three questions don’t spread as well as the two words “October,” but they’re more solid than making a decision based on a “win rate.”
Cross-market comparisons are also helpful. Fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, Hong Kong tech stocks, and digital assets sometimes alert you to changes in risk appetite before the U.S. stock index does. I’ll use tools like BiyaPay to view U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and digital assets in one place, so I switch between fewer apps. You can even deposit digital assets, exchange them for U.S. dollars or Hong Kong dollars, and transfer them easily to stocks.
This article does not represent any position