Bitcoin options expiring on Friday have a notional size of roughly $14.7 billion; on the same day, BTC traded about $49.7 billion over 24 hours. BTC’s market cap is about $1.73 trillion, with turnover around 2.9% and a seven-day increase of roughly 11.9%; Ethereum’s market cap is about $33.55 billion, turnover around 6.0%, with about 11.3% up over seven days; Solana is about $68.9 billion, turnover around 8.1%, and about 16.6% up. The three names’ relative size and turnover are completely inverted: the one that rose the furthest over the week is the smallest by size; in the “expiration” column, the open interest is only concentrated on the largest name—and that is also the lowest turnover tier.
$14.7 billion corresponds to roughly 186,000 contracts; the put-to-call ratio is about 0.52. The biggest pain point is around $72,000, while spot is holding above $85,000. The concentrated call strikes sit on four lines: $70,000, $85,000, $90,000, and $100,000, with each strike roughly 9,500 to 11,000 contracts—about 43% of open interest is concentrated in this batch.
I checked the outcome of the batch from last week. One U.S.-listed spot product expired first: of roughly 1.466 million contracts, calls were 833,000 and puts were 632,000, with about 37% of open interest squeezed into the $40 to $45 area. As prices moved and expiration shifted upward into that range, the side selling those contracts ended up on the unfavorable side: they could only buy back the underlying for hedging, and any newly issued portion had to buy coins—so the hedging ended up passing through to the coins. After that batch finished, the same set of positions wasn’t withdrawn; it was simply handed over to the Friday batch.
Between notional size and the amount actually settled there’s a gap: the contracts can be closed early, or carried to the next batch; the “physical” side of settlement is done in terms of units/entitlements. The derivatives side is adding too: open interest in futures is lifted to about $37.3 billion, and in perpetuals the net主动 buy orders over the week flipped from negative $310 million to positive $320 million.
On expiration day, settlement is for hedging positions—it cannot provide directional clarity. The “wrong-shape” is quite narrow: if after expiration the price moves out of the concentrated zone of strike prices for exercise, yet the open interest at those strike levels hasn’t dropped, it means they were merely rolled into the next batch. In Binance spot, the BTC trading pairs are listed—whether to buy or hold for yield is up to you. For products based on entitlements, the interest accrual methodology has always been disclosed; how to arrange it is your own decision. This article is a record of viewpoints and does not constitute investment advice.$MUBARAK
$NIL
$BCH
#140亿美元比特币期权周五到期
$14.7 billion corresponds to roughly 186,000 contracts; the put-to-call ratio is about 0.52. The biggest pain point is around $72,000, while spot is holding above $85,000. The concentrated call strikes sit on four lines: $70,000, $85,000, $90,000, and $100,000, with each strike roughly 9,500 to 11,000 contracts—about 43% of open interest is concentrated in this batch.
I checked the outcome of the batch from last week. One U.S.-listed spot product expired first: of roughly 1.466 million contracts, calls were 833,000 and puts were 632,000, with about 37% of open interest squeezed into the $40 to $45 area. As prices moved and expiration shifted upward into that range, the side selling those contracts ended up on the unfavorable side: they could only buy back the underlying for hedging, and any newly issued portion had to buy coins—so the hedging ended up passing through to the coins. After that batch finished, the same set of positions wasn’t withdrawn; it was simply handed over to the Friday batch.
Between notional size and the amount actually settled there’s a gap: the contracts can be closed early, or carried to the next batch; the “physical” side of settlement is done in terms of units/entitlements. The derivatives side is adding too: open interest in futures is lifted to about $37.3 billion, and in perpetuals the net主动 buy orders over the week flipped from negative $310 million to positive $320 million.
On expiration day, settlement is for hedging positions—it cannot provide directional clarity. The “wrong-shape” is quite narrow: if after expiration the price moves out of the concentrated zone of strike prices for exercise, yet the open interest at those strike levels hasn’t dropped, it means they were merely rolled into the next batch. In Binance spot, the BTC trading pairs are listed—whether to buy or hold for yield is up to you. For products based on entitlements, the interest accrual methodology has always been disclosed; how to arrange it is your own decision. This article is a record of viewpoints and does not constitute investment advice.$MUBARAK
$NIL
$BCH
#140亿美元比特币期权周五到期
