The subtle probing of the situation in the Middle East first cracked open in the oil futures market. As expectations of contacts between the US and Iran gained momentum, Brent crude pulled back to around $100.3, and oil and gas throughput through the Strait of Hormuz also hit a new six-month high. Risk premia in the commodities market narrowed, directly tearing open a breathing space in macro inflation expectations and the pressure from tighter interest rates. The retreat of safe-haven sentiment quickly transformed into buying momentum in risk assets.
With the macro liquidity valve slightly loosening, $BTC seized the opportunity to launch a strong rebound, with the highest price reaching $87,381. In the latter half of last week, ETF net inflows were nearly $600 million; combined with short-covering in the market and leveraged capital acting as a tailwind, it recaptured a key resistance zone within just a few days. However, the annualized funding rate rose to around 7.5%, indicating that this rally driven by eased cross-market sentiment is still underpinned by a relatively heavy presence of high-leverage speculation.
The key going forward is the strength of support around the $84,000 area. If Brent crude can hold below the $100 mark and geopolitical inflation expectations continue to cool, the spot support bid is likely to consolidate the repair gains from this move; otherwise, if geopolitical negotiations produce fresh uncertainties that trigger a rebound in oil prices, fragile high-level leveraged positions may face severe pullback tests.
With the macro liquidity valve slightly loosening, $BTC seized the opportunity to launch a strong rebound, with the highest price reaching $87,381. In the latter half of last week, ETF net inflows were nearly $600 million; combined with short-covering in the market and leveraged capital acting as a tailwind, it recaptured a key resistance zone within just a few days. However, the annualized funding rate rose to around 7.5%, indicating that this rally driven by eased cross-market sentiment is still underpinned by a relatively heavy presence of high-leverage speculation.
The key going forward is the strength of support around the $84,000 area. If Brent crude can hold below the $100 mark and geopolitical inflation expectations continue to cool, the spot support bid is likely to consolidate the repair gains from this move; otherwise, if geopolitical negotiations produce fresh uncertainties that trigger a rebound in oil prices, fragile high-level leveraged positions may face severe pullback tests.