$BBX In the past 24 hours, it rose 6.66%, with a quote of 8.662. At the same time, check the funding rate: 0.00081974 is positive, meaning longs are continuously paying fees to shorts.
This is a typical structure of chasing higher prices with longs, while funding costs are accumulating. The price rally together with a positive funding rate indicates that bullish positions are already fairly crowded. Open interest is 139083.13; at the current price level, if macro liquidity expectations tighten, these high-beta TradFi perpetual contracts will be hit first.
What the market is currently overlooking is how financing costs erode heavily positioned longs. Macro-wise, if any risk event triggers a flight to safety, the crowded longs will be the first to close positions to realize profits or cut losses. They will suffer a double hit: both a price pullback and ongoing funding cost losses.
The strongest counterargument is that if overall risk appetite rises further, this crowded structure could be pushed even higher. The conditions under which this thesis breaks are: the funding rate quickly drops to near the zero line over the next week, while OI does not decrease significantly—indicating that new capital is taking over to replace the older longs with higher costs.
Given the current structure, it’s not advisable to chase longs.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BBX
Where do you think this analysis is most likely to be wrong?
This is a typical structure of chasing higher prices with longs, while funding costs are accumulating. The price rally together with a positive funding rate indicates that bullish positions are already fairly crowded. Open interest is 139083.13; at the current price level, if macro liquidity expectations tighten, these high-beta TradFi perpetual contracts will be hit first.
What the market is currently overlooking is how financing costs erode heavily positioned longs. Macro-wise, if any risk event triggers a flight to safety, the crowded longs will be the first to close positions to realize profits or cut losses. They will suffer a double hit: both a price pullback and ongoing funding cost losses.
The strongest counterargument is that if overall risk appetite rises further, this crowded structure could be pushed even higher. The conditions under which this thesis breaks are: the funding rate quickly drops to near the zero line over the next week, while OI does not decrease significantly—indicating that new capital is taking over to replace the older longs with higher costs.
Given the current structure, it’s not advisable to chase longs.
Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #BBX
Where do you think this analysis is most likely to be wrong?