$ARM spot prices are up 16.4%; the contract funding rate has dropped to zero, and longs and shorts are stuck in place at the current level. The price has moved up, but it hasn’t triggered a rise in the funding rate—this suggests the chasers haven’t become crazy enough to actually pay the counterparty. Once this balance is broken, volatility will increase. The strongest counter-evidence is that the funding rate hitting zero could also mean the shorts are building up their strength—after the price goes sideways for a while, they may flip and dump. If the price continues to hold above the current level, the shorts’ stop-loss orders could be triggered, pushing the price to surge to 345. My trade: long direction, 3x leverage, stop-loss at 310, take-profit at 345, position size 10%. If it breaks below 310, I’ll exit.

Trading tag: #TradFi #链上美股 #ARM

Where do you think this thesis is most likely to be wrong?