The biggest downside for BTC today, I think, is Satoshi’s reappearance.
Look at the timeline:
In 2008, the white paper was published.
On January 3, 2009, the Bitcoin network was launched and the genesis block was mined.
The last time Satoshi was seen was April 26, 2011.
Assuming Satoshi was 30 years old that year, then after 11 years he would already be 30, which means this year he would be 45.
In an interview, CZ said that the current BTC community includes early technical people—except those who have already left the industry to do other things.
As far as people who have had direct contact and communication with Satoshi, there are still a dozen or so.
How can one person keep disappearing for 15 years and not need to use any of that money?
I think the answer only has two possibilities:
1. He has passed away.
2. He simply doesn’t lack money; assets outside of Crypto are enough for his life, and he’s extremely wealthy. (How wealthy can someone be to just leave so much money untouched and also possess this kind of technology? I think back then there weren’t many people like that.)
In the future, I believe the biggest downside for BTC would be Satoshi’s appearance. If that day comes, whether the market can absorb his BTC will be the most important thing. Of course, if Satoshi appears, it may be another kind of positive news as well.
And there’s another positive factor too: as time goes on, with leadership changes, more countries’ leaders will eventually accept new technology.
No matter what, as time passes the total supply of 21 million remains unchanged. The amount of lost BTC increases over time. CZ mentioned in an interview that about 10% of BTC has already been lost, so CZ’s claim that it could reach 1 million per coin isn’t baseless.
BTC believers never care about the fluctuations of the candlestick chart. They only care about one thing: can I keep buying at a lower price, buying more of that certainty in the future? #BTC