1. Current situation
#Bitcoin has just surpassed US$85,000, reaching its highest level since January. In the last 24 hours it rose by more than 5%, after having been close to US$75,000 on September 15.
Ethereum is also recovering and is around US$2,700–2,720, after breaking through a resistance located at approximately US$2,672.
A relevant macroeconomic element is the U.S. Federal Reserve, which raised its rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. Its message continues to be relatively restrictive because inflation remains high.
2. Factors that could take BTC toward US$90,000–95,000
Maintaining capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.
Bitcoin holding above US$80,000–82,000.
Continuation of the weakening of the dollar and/or yields.
Improved appetite for risk assets.
New institutional purchases.
Bitcoin’s #ETF spot had received around US$987 million in a week in early September, after about US$3.52 billion in net inflows during August.
Strategy recently bought another 950 BTC for approximately US$75.7 million, bringing its holdings to about 846,000 BTC.
3. Caution signals
In the last 24 hours, approximately US$750 million worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated, of which about US$648 million were short positions. This suggests that a significant part of the move indicated by #BTC was related to a short squeeze, and not necessarily exclusively to new structural buying.
The macroeconomic context is also not completely favorable: the Fed’s monetary policy remains restrictive and expectations for monetary easing have been reduced, which may keep pressure on risk assets.
The incomplete progress of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate adds regulatory uncertainty, especially for Ethereum and altcoins.
4. Ethereum and altcoins
For altcoins, the analysis should be more selective. A sequence worth watching is BTC → ETH → SOL → the rest of the altcoins.
#Ethereum has an important technical zone around US$2,800. A consolidation above that area could open the way toward US$2,950–3,000, while losing US$2,600–2,650 again would increase the risk of a correction.
#Solana also deserves attention: data cited by The Block indicate more than US$500 million in net inflows into SOL ETFs during 2026, along with considerable on-chain activity.
5. Time map: September 21–30
September 21–24: Possible continuation of BTC momentum, but with high volatility after the short squeeze.
September 24–27: An important period to determine whether US$85,000 represents a sustainable breakout or just a rebound.
September 27–30: If BTC remains above US$85,000, the chance of testing US$90,000–95,000 increases. If it falls below US$80,000, it could quickly return to US$76,000–80,000.
7. Summary
To wrap up September, the market shows a bullish bias but with high volatility. The US$80,000–85,000 zone for BTC is especially important. The recent jump should not automatically be interpreted as confirmation of a new bullish phase, since a considerable portion of the move was associated with short-position liquidations.