$INTW surged 19.194% in one day; the price is stuck at 32.54, and trading volume has broken through $30 million. Funding rates are completely flat at zero, and the open interest of 91,424 contracts hasn’t jumped along with the price—this combination is kind of interesting.
The angle is the semiconductor/AI chain, but there’s no comparable data for other tickers in the sector, so I can only look at $INTW itself. A funding rate of zero means neither side is paying—there’s no sign of extreme crowding. Also, the increase in open interest is far less than the price move. The rally may be propped up by spot buying pressure, while the derivatives market is still watching. Per the directional rule: when funding is zero, leveraged funds haven’t taken a clear stance; the price rising lacks confirmation from the derivatives side.
Old dog thinks that if this kind of rally is driven purely by spot, and if OI doesn’t follow afterward, it’s easy to fall back. My current view is that the upside momentum may fade in the short term. Action-wise: if the price drops below 32, I’ll cut the position by half, because the current price is the only reference level. The anti-consensus point: the market may think it’s up nearly 20% and should be near a top. But I see funding hasn’t turned positive, and OI hasn’t spiked—this suggests the shorts haven’t admitted defeat yet. If OI suddenly expands together with a breakout above 33, it could instead trigger a wave of short squeezes.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #INTW #INTWUSDT $INTW
The angle is the semiconductor/AI chain, but there’s no comparable data for other tickers in the sector, so I can only look at $INTW itself. A funding rate of zero means neither side is paying—there’s no sign of extreme crowding. Also, the increase in open interest is far less than the price move. The rally may be propped up by spot buying pressure, while the derivatives market is still watching. Per the directional rule: when funding is zero, leveraged funds haven’t taken a clear stance; the price rising lacks confirmation from the derivatives side.
Old dog thinks that if this kind of rally is driven purely by spot, and if OI doesn’t follow afterward, it’s easy to fall back. My current view is that the upside momentum may fade in the short term. Action-wise: if the price drops below 32, I’ll cut the position by half, because the current price is the only reference level. The anti-consensus point: the market may think it’s up nearly 20% and should be near a top. But I see funding hasn’t turned positive, and OI hasn’t spiked—this suggests the shorts haven’t admitted defeat yet. If OI suddenly expands together with a breakout above 33, it could instead trigger a wave of short squeezes.
Trading tag: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #INTW #INTWUSDT $INTW