A rare event in history: the bill didn’t pass. The Fed raised rates, and Japan also raised rates—by logic, risk assets should have taken a hit. Yet at this moment, Bitcoin and altcoins suddenly surged.

The market is divided. Some people are watching the 80,000 level and worry whether an epic-level crash is coming. Others, after $BTC broke above 81,000, are suddenly hearing nonstop talk about “institutions entering the market.”

When you lay out this week’s ETF data, the story doesn’t look that straightforward. In the two days when the bill failed and the rate hikes took effect, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of more than 700 million. Then only on Friday did they suddenly swing to net inflows of 433 million—Fidelity alone accounted for 311 million. Add BlackRock, and on that day nearly 97% came from these two firms. What were net inflows for the whole week? Just a bit over six million—barely a rounding error. It feels more like withdrawals were done midweek, and a single “final shot” was fired on Friday, which blew up the shorts—not like institutions were continuously buying throughout the week. Strategy holds more than 800,000 coins, and this week there’s also been no sign of any new major accumulation.