š° Why did sell pressure disappear after Bitcoin broke above $85K?
Bitcoin on Monday seemed to get a shot of adrenalineāfueled by the liquidation of $300M in short positions, it surged from above $80K to $85,308, breaking through into the supply zone of long-term holders for the first time. Even more explosive: old-timer selling has dropped by 80%, and trading over the past three days has been happening at a lossādoesnāt that sound like the marketās final frenzy before it fully hands over control?
On one side, thereās the Fedās rate-hike ghost (Goolsbee just called for more hikes). On the other, thereās the Treasuryās backing with debt purchases (Bessent supports buying bonds). Thatās how twisted the crypto market narrative is right now. Donāt forgetā the SECās tokenized trading is also getting ready to go live. See you Tuesday.
Why is this news important?
The fundamental reason behind Bitcoinās rise is that selling pressure has finally run out. Over the past three months, veteransā sell orders were swept away like by a vacuum cleaner; now they simply canāt sell anymore. This means:
1. **Panic sentiment is nearing its end**: When even selling at a loss canāt be carried out anymore, it suggests the panic peak has been reached. This is similar to the situation in March 2022, before Bitcoin broke down below $40K.
2. **Capital costs push up**: The Chicago Fed president just said āinflation will keep coming back, and we still need more hikes,ā and that spark directly burned into the crypto market. In the short term, arbitrage traders have stepped aside due to rising costs, but long-term capital now views it as an opportunity to build positions.
3. **A delicate balance in regulation**: The Treasury supports the stock market with bond buying, while the SEC rolls out a pilot for tokenized trading. Itās like pressing the brakes for the crypto market, thenāquietlyāletting off the gas. According to Binance Square data, global tokenized trading volume is still only about 1% of spot, but the U.S. market has huge potential.
Market impact
In the short term, $85K is a historic resistance level. After a breakout, Bitcoin can at least hold steady for a while. But watch two variables:
1. **Rate-hike expectations**: If U.S. Treasury yields keep climbing toward 5.216%, then $86Kā$88K will be a tough nut to crack, and any post-breakout pullback could happen quickly. Invalidation condition: If the Fed raises rates by 50 bps in December, this assessment is no longer valid.
2. **Quality of buy-side demand**: The reason for the current reduction in LTC sell orders is that theyāre losing money and canāt hold onānot because theyāre actively pushing prices up. If ETH fails to break $2,750 next, BTC will be hard-pressed to keep pushing through $90K. Invalidation condition: If Ethereum falls below $2.5K, it would indicate that the buying is all just ābag-chasers.ā
Trading outlook
Right now, I think Bitcoin near $85K marks the start of a choppy upward trend, with $83K as the first safe level. But this rally doesnāt look as wild as in 2021āit feels more like taking advantage of an opportunity while the shadow of further Fed hikes hangs over the market. If $86K holds, you can watch the $90Kā$95K range. But if LTC starts breaking below $70K, this view is invalidated.
This article has no sponsorship from any project; the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
ā ļø Not investment advice; predictions are for reference only
#CryptoNews|BitcoinClears$85,000asLTHSellingSlows80%āGoolsbeeFlagsMoreHikes,BessentDefendsBuybacks,SECTokenizedTradingOpensTuesday
$BTC #BTC
Bitcoin on Monday seemed to get a shot of adrenalineāfueled by the liquidation of $300M in short positions, it surged from above $80K to $85,308, breaking through into the supply zone of long-term holders for the first time. Even more explosive: old-timer selling has dropped by 80%, and trading over the past three days has been happening at a lossādoesnāt that sound like the marketās final frenzy before it fully hands over control?
On one side, thereās the Fedās rate-hike ghost (Goolsbee just called for more hikes). On the other, thereās the Treasuryās backing with debt purchases (Bessent supports buying bonds). Thatās how twisted the crypto market narrative is right now. Donāt forgetā the SECās tokenized trading is also getting ready to go live. See you Tuesday.
Why is this news important?
The fundamental reason behind Bitcoinās rise is that selling pressure has finally run out. Over the past three months, veteransā sell orders were swept away like by a vacuum cleaner; now they simply canāt sell anymore. This means:
1. **Panic sentiment is nearing its end**: When even selling at a loss canāt be carried out anymore, it suggests the panic peak has been reached. This is similar to the situation in March 2022, before Bitcoin broke down below $40K.
2. **Capital costs push up**: The Chicago Fed president just said āinflation will keep coming back, and we still need more hikes,ā and that spark directly burned into the crypto market. In the short term, arbitrage traders have stepped aside due to rising costs, but long-term capital now views it as an opportunity to build positions.
3. **A delicate balance in regulation**: The Treasury supports the stock market with bond buying, while the SEC rolls out a pilot for tokenized trading. Itās like pressing the brakes for the crypto market, thenāquietlyāletting off the gas. According to Binance Square data, global tokenized trading volume is still only about 1% of spot, but the U.S. market has huge potential.
Market impact
In the short term, $85K is a historic resistance level. After a breakout, Bitcoin can at least hold steady for a while. But watch two variables:
1. **Rate-hike expectations**: If U.S. Treasury yields keep climbing toward 5.216%, then $86Kā$88K will be a tough nut to crack, and any post-breakout pullback could happen quickly. Invalidation condition: If the Fed raises rates by 50 bps in December, this assessment is no longer valid.
2. **Quality of buy-side demand**: The reason for the current reduction in LTC sell orders is that theyāre losing money and canāt hold onānot because theyāre actively pushing prices up. If ETH fails to break $2,750 next, BTC will be hard-pressed to keep pushing through $90K. Invalidation condition: If Ethereum falls below $2.5K, it would indicate that the buying is all just ābag-chasers.ā
Trading outlook
Right now, I think Bitcoin near $85K marks the start of a choppy upward trend, with $83K as the first safe level. But this rally doesnāt look as wild as in 2021āit feels more like taking advantage of an opportunity while the shadow of further Fed hikes hangs over the market. If $86K holds, you can watch the $90Kā$95K range. But if LTC starts breaking below $70K, this view is invalidated.
This article has no sponsorship from any project; the author does not hold any of the assets mentioned
ā ļø Not investment advice; predictions are for reference only
#CryptoNews|BitcoinClears$85,000asLTHSellingSlows80%āGoolsbeeFlagsMoreHikes,BessentDefendsBuybacks,SECTokenizedTradingOpensTuesday
$BTC #BTC
