Bitcoin Breaks Through the 50-Week Key Moving Average—Do Historical Patterns Signal a Strong Bull Run?
On Monday this week, the price of Bitcoin returned above $81,000, marking the first close above the 50-week moving average in 45 weeks. This important technical breakout has sparked widespread discussion in the market about the start of a new bull cycle.
According to a research note by Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn, Bitcoin previously tried to break above the 50-week moving average multiple times during past bear markets, but all attempts failed. This time, successfully standing above the moving average carries significant historical meaning.
From a historical perspective, when Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average, it is often regarded as a strong confirmation that the bottom of the bear market has been formed.
Specifically, historical data show that in five bear-market instances when BTC fell below the 50-week moving average, in four of them, after the first weekly closing price returned above the moving average, there were no subsequent lower lows.
Another market observer, Joe Consorti, offered a more optimistic interpretation. In the sample of the COVID-19 crash, the probability of forming a cycle low after the price drops back to the 50-week moving average is 75%；
But if these “black swan” events are completely excluded, the probability rises to 100%. He posted on the social platform X: “The bear market has been defeated—welcome to the bull market.”
In addition, in the week prior, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act, which cast a shadow over the crypto market. Combined with the unfavorable backdrop of both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates afterward, Bitcoin still carved out a temporary recovery from its slump and demonstrated strong price resilience.
However, while historical patterns may offer some reference value, the uniqueness of each market cycle also reminds us to remain cautious.
As for whether Bitcoin can continue the upward trajectory implied by this technical breakout, it still needs time and verification from more fundamental factors.
#比特币站上50周均线
On Monday this week, the price of Bitcoin returned above $81,000, marking the first close above the 50-week moving average in 45 weeks. This important technical breakout has sparked widespread discussion in the market about the start of a new bull cycle.
According to a research note by Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn, Bitcoin previously tried to break above the 50-week moving average multiple times during past bear markets, but all attempts failed. This time, successfully standing above the moving average carries significant historical meaning.
From a historical perspective, when Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average, it is often regarded as a strong confirmation that the bottom of the bear market has been formed.
Specifically, historical data show that in five bear-market instances when BTC fell below the 50-week moving average, in four of them, after the first weekly closing price returned above the moving average, there were no subsequent lower lows.
Another market observer, Joe Consorti, offered a more optimistic interpretation. In the sample of the COVID-19 crash, the probability of forming a cycle low after the price drops back to the 50-week moving average is 75%；
But if these “black swan” events are completely excluded, the probability rises to 100%. He posted on the social platform X: “The bear market has been defeated—welcome to the bull market.”
In addition, in the week prior, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act, which cast a shadow over the crypto market. Combined with the unfavorable backdrop of both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan raising interest rates afterward, Bitcoin still carved out a temporary recovery from its slump and demonstrated strong price resilience.
However, while historical patterns may offer some reference value, the uniqueness of each market cycle also reminds us to remain cautious.
As for whether Bitcoin can continue the upward trajectory implied by this technical breakout, it still needs time and verification from more fundamental factors.
#比特币站上50周均线
