#黄金
I don’t think gold will surge significantly next
Because the Fed has resumed rate hikes; the dot plot shows there’s still one more hike this year. High interest rates will likely stay in place longer, so the opportunity cost of holding gold remains high. The new chair, Waller, has abandoned forward guidance and will no longer backstop the market. The earlier Fed put-option logic that had supported gold prices has been dismantled. At the same time, the geopolitical risk premium is gradually fading, the narrative about the dollar’s credit collapse has been refuted, and the gold-vs.-dollar premium is narrowing. Central bank gold purchases are a slow variable: although they can provide some support, the net purchases in the first half were the lowest since 2022, so they can only cushion downside rather than push prices higher. In terms of positioning, ETF and futures longs are already heavily crowded, meaning there won’t be enough incremental buying going forward. Unless there is an emergency rate cut or a systemic crisis, gold is more likely to trade in a wide range at high levels—and even see a phased pullback—rather than continue rallying
From a technical standpoint, personally I believe that at this level it will mainly see high-level and wide-range consolidation. The turning point is at 4770, and the defense level is at 3980
$XAUT
$XAU
I don’t think gold will surge significantly next
Because the Fed has resumed rate hikes; the dot plot shows there’s still one more hike this year. High interest rates will likely stay in place longer, so the opportunity cost of holding gold remains high. The new chair, Waller, has abandoned forward guidance and will no longer backstop the market. The earlier Fed put-option logic that had supported gold prices has been dismantled. At the same time, the geopolitical risk premium is gradually fading, the narrative about the dollar’s credit collapse has been refuted, and the gold-vs.-dollar premium is narrowing. Central bank gold purchases are a slow variable: although they can provide some support, the net purchases in the first half were the lowest since 2022, so they can only cushion downside rather than push prices higher. In terms of positioning, ETF and futures longs are already heavily crowded, meaning there won’t be enough incremental buying going forward. Unless there is an emergency rate cut or a systemic crisis, gold is more likely to trade in a wide range at high levels—and even see a phased pullback—rather than continue rallying
From a technical standpoint, personally I believe that at this level it will mainly see high-level and wide-range consolidation. The turning point is at 4770, and the defense level is at 3980
$XAUT
$XAU
